During the opening of the three-day Nato Summit in Washington to celebrate the organisation's 75^th birthday US President Joe Biden announced a “historic donation” of air defence systems for Ukraine to bolster its ability to counter Russian aggression.

The package will include desperately needed MIM-104 Patriot Surface-to-Air Missile Battery each from the U.S, Germany, and Romania as well as another Battery made up from components that will be donated by the Netherlands alongside other allies. Italy will also provide another SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine.

“Today, I’m announcing a historic donation of air defence equipment for Ukraine. The US, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Italy will provide Ukraine with equipment for five additional strategic air defence systems,” Biden said. “In the coming months the US and our partners intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of tactical air defence systems. The US will make sure that when we export critical air defence interceptors Ukraine goes to the front of the line. They will get these systems before anyone else gets it.”

Ukraine has been pummelled by Russian missiles since it intensified its barrage in March, after Ukraine began to run out of air defence ammunition after the US ran out of money for Ukraine at the end of last year. In the latest attack more than 100 were killed by a rare daylight missile barrage on Kyiv and other cities that also hit the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, the largest such facility in Ukraine.

Bankova is calling for the allies to send an additional 10 Patriot batteries by the end of the year, but earlier Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that at least seven Patriot systems are desperately needed to protect the country's skies and to fully protect Ukraine’s cities it needs at least 22 batteries. The US has depleted its stock of surplus Patriot systems and wont dip into its strategic reserve but has put in orders with arms manufacturers to produce more that are earmarked for Ukraine.

"We strive for more air defence systems for Ukraine. I’m sure we’ll succeed. We strive for more aircraft. The F-16s. We fight to obtain them. We fight for additional security guarantees for Ukraine, such as armament and funds, as well as political aid. We fight for necessary decisive actions from America and Europe, which will strengthen our soldiers,” Zelenskiy said in his evening address ahead of the summit.

Another item on the agenda is a plan to set up an integrated air defence system that would allow Romania and Poland to shoot down Russian missiles over western Ukraine.

Russian strikes

In his opening remarks Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy call again for the US to lift all restrictions on using Nato supplied weapons to hit targets inside Russia and highlighted the attack on a children’s hospital the previous week as illustrating the dangers of allowing Russia to strike Ukraine from inside its own territory with impunity.

Ukraine has asked the White House to lift the long-range missile restrictions for months — in multiple meetings and in phone calls with senior leaders of the administration, Politico reports.

The US has been wary of granting this permission for fear of provoking a military response from Russia. Separately, the US has reportedly put pressure on Kyiv to halt its strikes on Russian refineries, even if it uses its own homemade drones, not US made weapons, for fear of driving up petrol prices at the pump ahead of November’s presidential election.

The head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said he plans on bringing the issue up again this week in his meetings with the administration, adding that it may take some more time for the US to agree.

“If you’re good friends, it doesn’t mean that you are in the same position on everything,” Yermak said, adding that Ukraine also needs more details from the Biden administration on how many weapons it plans to provide in the coming months, as well as their expected date of delivery.

This year, Ukraine has struck at least 20 oil facilities in Russia with its drones. According to analysts, as of the end of March these strikes have reduced the production of light petroleum products by at least 1.7mn tonnes per month, worth approximately $1.5bn. As of May, drone strikes had disabled 14% of Russia's oil refining capacity and led to an increase in domestic fuel prices by 20-30%. There are about 30 large oil refineries and another 80 mini-refineries in Russia which Ukrainian forces can strike.

Nevertheless, the attacks continue. On July 8 a drone hit privately owned oil company Lukoil's Kalachevskaya oil depot in the Volgograd region causing a major fire and destroying tonnes of stored oil. Another Lukoil oil depot in Pavlovskaya in the Krasnodar region was also hit a few days earlier. The state-owned Rosneft oil depot in Leningradskaya was also targeted the same day. However, the type of target has also changed in the last month with Ukraine also hitting Russia's military industrial complex assets such as the Novolypetsk metallurgical plant at the end of June, the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant named after Ugarov (OEMK) in the Belgorod region in July, and a gunpowder plant in the town of Kotovsk in Russia's Tambov Oblast, amongst other non-oil targets.

Weapons deliveries

Ukraine also called on the US to speed up fresh deliveries of ammunition and weapons that are part of the new $61bn aid package that was approved on April 20. Reports from the battlefront say that fresh supplies are arriving, but too slowly.

“We have this package,” Yermak said. “But unfortunately, it’s the delivery — it is still delayed. We need more. It is necessary to move faster.” As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine is facing the problem of the three Ms: the lack of men, money and materiel that is putting increasing pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the face of a renewed onslaught by Russian forces that have had the military imitative since the fall of Avdiivka on February 17.

Even more pressing is the need for the long-promised F-16 jets that are needed to counter Russia’s use of the massive FAB glide bombs that was introduced earlier this year against which Ukraine has almost no defence. These bombs are launched by Russian jets flying behind the Russian border and F-16s could push the safe zone for the Russian jets far enough back to put Ukraine’s positions on the front line out of range. However, the US is reportedly deliberately dragging its heels in training pilots and none are expected to be delivered until the end of summer at the earliest.

Nato membership

Negotiations on the final communiqué began before the Nato summit started and will state that the path for Ukraine’s eventual membership in Nato is “irreversible.” The allies have been extremely reluctant to promise Ukraine a concrete path to Nato. Last year’s Nato summit was tense after Zelenskiy pressured the members to commit to an explicit timetable for membership but in return all he was offered was a vague “strong package” with no details and a vague statement that was little different from the Bucharest memorandum invitation in 2008 that promised Ukraine “eventual” membership without giving any concrete timeline.

Nato has made some progress thanks to the conflict in Ukraine, which has refocused attention on the alliance’s readiness to protect its members.

“Leaders from the 32 members of Nato have gathered in Washington to celebrate the military alliance’s anniversary. On Biden’s watch, the number of Nato states spending 2% or more of their GDP on defence has expanded from nine to 23, with several other countries on course to meet this target soon,” says former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul.

And foreign ministers from 35 non-Nato partner countries were also invited. The participants include the foreign ministers of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE. Also, this will be the third summit in a row in which not only the heads of state of all 32 Nato member countries will take part but also the leaders of the Indo-Pacific partner countries: Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, highlighting the rising tensions with China in the South China Sea.

But the Nato summit could be the second example of weakening unity amongst Ukraine’s Western allies, following the failed Swiss peace summit held on June 16-17. Although that attracted some 100 countries to participate, as one of its goals was to confirm Russia’s international isolation the fact that most of the Global South countries chose to stay away, and some key players like China and KSA boycotted the meeting, while India sent a very junior delegation, the upshot was the Swiss summit only highlighted the growing polarity between the East and West’s support for the Ukrainian cause.

A group of distinguished academics, including vocal war-critic John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, published an open letter ahead of the summit entitled: “The Nato alliance should not invite Ukraine to become a member.”

“Some claim bringing Ukraine into Nato would deter Russia from ever invading the country again. That is wishful thinking,” the letter began, going on to argue that as Ukraine’s fate has no material impact on Nato members' security, bringing it into the alliance and obliging members to go to war with Russia if it attacks Ukraine again, actually undermines Nato security.

There are other ways of dealing with the Russian threat, the letter opines. Nato allies have demonstrated through their lack of offensive support for Ukraine since the war started that they do not believe the stakes of the conflict, while significant, justify the price of war between Nato and Russia.

“The closer Nato comes to promising that Ukraine will join the alliance once the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to keep fighting the war and killing Ukrainians so as to forestall Ukraine’s integration into Nato,” the academics argued.

“The purpose of Nato is not to signal esteem for other countries; it is to defend Nato territory and strengthen the security of Nato members. Admitting Ukraine would reduce the security of the United States and Nato allies, at considerable risk to all,” the letter said.

Plans to provide long-term aid to Kyiv have “come to a standstill” and Zelenskiy’s hopes for alliance membership remain elusive. A looming Trump presidency only casts more uncertainty over Nato’s commitment to supporting Ukraine; Trump has said he would allow the Russians to do "whatever the hell they want" with any member country of the alliance that he deems insufficiently active in Nato and has also threatened to pull out of Nato altogether, or at least introduce a two-tier Nato system.

The problem of corruption in the Ukrainian government is another worry for allies, according to a US State Department report that recommends Ukraine take “additional steps” before talks on its Nato membership could progress. The $61bn US aid package specifically included $27mn to be used for accounting and accountability oversight for the distribution of the funds.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hopes that Ukraine will join the defence alliance within the next decade. "I hope that Ukraine will become an ally," said Stoltenberg, who is leaving the position of secretary general in the autumn, but most observers are not expecting Ukraine to join in the foreseeable future.

This year, Zelenskiy was warned not to repeat his explicit demands made last year, according to pre-summit reports, and accept the plans for a “bridge” to Nato membership which again carries no explicit promises, and could undermine European security some academics argue.

The final communique will also pledge $40bn next year in Nato military aid, with annual contributions from member states, the Ukrainian government source told the Kyiv Independent.

Stoltenberg earlier called for Nato members to commit $100bn to support Ukraine and make its funding more predictable. However, that was too rich for most members and the amount was quickly reduced to $40bn. Even that proved problematic, as Stoltenberg also wanted members to commit to providing this money on an annual basis, whereas the talks ended with members promising to provide an additional $40bn for 2025, but then review the arrangement every year thereafter.

Observers will closely follow the summit, as maintaining its unity is under pressure. The New York Times (NYT) reported ahead of the summit that cracks are appearing as Biden is struggling after his debate fiasco, French President Emmanuel Macron is fighting for his political life after the snap elections and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also took a body blow in the recent EU elections to name only a few of the problems.