CBR: October macroeconomic forecast upgrades 2024 growth, but will slow in 2025
18 hours ago
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reversed its easing policy and hiked rates for the first time since 2018 by 50bp to 6.5% at its monetary policy meeting on March 4.
The NBU has been slashing rates in the last two years as it has been highly successful in taming inflation, which fell to a post-Soviet low of 1.7% in May 2020. However, more recently inflation started climbing again on the back of rising food prices and reached 6.1% this January.
With inflationary pressures still present the regulator decided to act to head off further appreciation as other central banks in the region have been forced to do for the same reasons. The NBU has an inflation target of 5%, plus/minus 1pp.
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Data
CBR: October macroeconomic forecast upgrades 2024 growth, but will slow in 2025
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, RUB/$ exchange rate, exports, imports and Brent oil price are widening by the end of the period,
Turkey sticks with 50% policy rate for eighth straight month
Reports say some carry traders have closed lira positions, but the smooth nominal devaluation and real lira appreciation policy remains on track.
More than half of Ukrainians favour peace talks as war reaches 1,000 days, finds Gallup poll
Over half of Ukrainians now support negotiations to end the war with Russia, marking a significant shift in public sentiment as the conflict surpasses its 1,000th day, according to Gallup polls released on November 19.
What happens if aid to Ukraine collapses under Trump?
Researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which has been tracking aid to Ukraine's war effort, have calculated hypothetical scenarios of what they believe Ukraine aid could look like in 2025, once Trump takes office in January.
Popular support for Ukraine falling amongst allies
Nato's most recent survey of its member country populations showed that even among those nations that are Ukraine's biggest supporters in terms of its war effort against Russia, many constituents disagree with continued support, Statista reports.
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