Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte took over as the new Nato Secretary General on October 1 and said: “My first task is Ukraine.” However, in the rest of his remarks he went on to call for more investment into the European arms industry to rebuild Nato’s military strength, in keeping with his predecessor’s game plan. 

"You already mentioned the priority you have been working on. And these priorities we will take forward in the future – Ukraine. We have to make sure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent democratic nation," he said at the Nato Headquarters, addressing Jens Stoltenberg, who is stepping down as Secretary General after a decade at the helm of the security alliance.

Norwegian-born Stoltenberg has been a tireless advocate for supporting Ukraine and Rutte says he will not change that, saying that the war is at the top of his list.

In his five-year term, Rutte said the top priority is to keep Nato strong and make sure that its defences remain effective and reliable against all threats. To do that, more forces with better capabilities and faster innovation are needed, which requires investment, he said at a ceremony following his handover as the fourteenth secretary general of the alliance.

These comments suggest that Rutte will support the recent analysis by former Italian Prime Minister and ex-European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi in his report that highlighted a need for massive investment into the European defence sector after years of the so-called peace dividend that have made the EU increasingly uncompetitive.

The war in Ukraine has run down Europe’s reserves of weapons and demonstrated its industrial weakness in the defence sector. Russia is embarking on a long-term military reconstitution programme aimed at restoring the losses incurred during the war. Germany, on the other hand, formerly the most powerful military power in Europe, will not be able to return to pre-war levels of armament for decades due to years of neglect and underinvestment. 

Bringing Europe’s defence sector up to speed has become increasingly important, as the war in Ukraine looks like it may drag on. Russia said the same day that it has “no illusions about the prospects for improving relations with the US” and is ready for a long-term confrontation with Washington, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS. 

"We conducted a substantive analysis of the situation [with Russian lawmakers], exchanged opinions on the prospects for improving our relations [with the US], including in light of the upcoming US elections on November 5. I think that we should not have any particular illusions, given the bipartisan anti-Russian consensus that has developed in the US. We must prepare for a long-term confrontation with that country. We are ready for this in every sense," he said.

"We are sending warning signals to our opponent so that they don’t underestimate our determination," the senior diplomat added obliquely referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to update Russia’s nuclear weapon doctrine and loosen the first strike rules, as well as early changes to Russia’s foreign policy concept that removed all talk of “cooperation” and “partnership” with the West. 

Rutte also called for increased support by Nato members in the alliance’s collective defence and deterrence measures, and more investment was needed for arms production. He also said that the partnerships forged over the last two and half years need to be strengthened, particularly in the Middle East.

However, later in his comments he downgraded Ukraine somewhat, saying his second priority is to “step up our support for Ukraine and bring it ever closer to Nato, because there can be no lasting security in Europe without a strong, independent Ukraine," Rutte continued, adding that "Ukraine's rightful place is in Nato."

These comments are a clear continuation of Stoltenberg’s goals, who said shortly after the war in Ukraine began that his first priority was to “prevent world war three,” and that supporting Ukraine was a secondary, but important, consideration.

As his third priority, Rutte cited strengthening the partnership with "the European Union and with countries around the world that share" Nato’s interests and values.

Work cut out

Rutte’s appointment comes as the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) are closing in on the key logistical centre of Pokrovsk in the Donbas and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are in slow retreat. At the same time, Ukraine fatigue has been building over the last year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy just returned from New York where he presented his victory plan to US President Joe Biden, but the trip was probably a failure, as the US is increasingly reluctant to provide Kyiv with more money and weapons, bne IntelliNews opined in a recent opinion piece.

Biden called for a new military Ramstein meeting of Nato leaders in October, when the US will likely announce concrete new support for Ukraine based on the contents of Zelenskiy plan and Rutte will expand on his vision for managing the conflict.

However, some have speculated that Zelenskiy victory plan was designed to fail as the war increasingly goes against the AFU, as with winter closing in and half the country’s power stations destroyed, Zelenskiy may be preparing the ground to begin ceasefire negotiations with Russia.

The flagging enthusiasm of Ukraine allies is fuelling this speculation. Zelenskiy has specifically asked on multiple occasions for permission from the US to use long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia and has repeatedly been refused. He left New York with another refusal, The Times reported last week.

Washington has no “magic capability” to help Ukraine change the course of the war, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters at a briefing on October 1, in remarks assumed to relate to the missile permissions and other weapons requests in Zelenskiy’s victory plan.

"You and I have had this conversation before about other weapons systems or tactics that you perceive as the one magic capability that would change the face of the conflict. And I think I have always made clear that that is not how we see it," he noted.

Zelenskiy has also called for a second peace summit this November following the failed Swiss peace summit held on June 16-17, as Ukraine continues to run out of men, money and materiel.