The horse-trading got underway in earnest at the second round of ceasefire talks in Riyadh on March 23. Two negotiating teams from Ukraine and Russia met separately with their US counterparts to start setting the conditions for a permanent end to the Ukrainian hostilities.

Neither side gave away much information on what was talked about, but hinted that a lot of ground was covered in the two days of talks.

"After all, this is about technical talks," presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said after the Russian talks were over, adding that the Kremlin would not reveal what was discussed.

The negotiations were "useful" and will continue, possibly with the participation of the UN and other countries, Russian negotiator Grigory Karasin told TASS on March 24. 

"We talked about everything, it was an intense dialogue, not easy, but very useful for us and the Americans," Karasin said, adding that "lots of problems were discussed… Of course we are far from solving everything, from being in agreement on all points, but it seems that this type of discussion is very timely," he said.

Top of the agenda was the restart of Black Sea grain trade, one of the easiest issues on the docket. Russia and Ukraine had already reached an agreement on the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the summer of 2022 that collapsed the next year. All the groundwork has been done so the issue of allowing Ukraine to export its grain by ship could deliver an easy win to keep the talks moving forward.

The Ukrainians went first on March 23, with the Russian delegation meeting with the US team the next day on March 24. According to the adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Serhiy Leshchenko, the Ukrainian delegation decided to stay on an extra day and hold an additional meeting with their US colleagues on March 25, after the Russian-American talks end.

The Russo-American talks were again coloured by the participation of Andrew Peek, a Middle East expert, not on Russia or Ukraine, highlighting the multiregional nature of the US position and the possibility of a US-Iran deal also appearing at some point.

It is worth noting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who heads the Russo-US talks, was in Tehran in February to talk sanctions and nuclear power. Trump’s interest in Ukraine is minimal; he has dismissed Fiona Hill, the US’ foremost expert on Russia, and has appointed Steve Witkoff, Special Envoy to the Middle East, to head the negotiations, who cut his teeth as a businessman in the Middle East.

Ukrainian talks

Trump's Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg met with Umerov, who is a Ukraine expert, but was removed from the Russian negotiating team after the Kremlin complained he was “too pro-Ukraine,” according to reports.

The delegations were expected to cover three main topics: Black Sea shipping security, targeting energy assets and the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire deal suggested by US President Donald Trump.

Umerov said the talks were “productive” and confirmed that the two groups discussed the protection of critical energy infrastructure and Black Sea navigation security.

But despite Putin saying he was open to the month-long pause during a 1.5-hour phone call with Trump on March 18, Russia has continued to carry out attacks across Ukraine, including on the capital Kyiv, killing seven people during the weekend before the meetings. Ukrainian state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia also came under a “massive targeted cyber-attack” on its online services the day before.

Black Sea maritime ceasefire

US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told CBS News on March 22: “We are now going to talk about a Black Sea maritime ceasefire so that both sides can move grain, fuel and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea.”

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the same day that the resumption of the 2022 Black Sea grain deal would be the “main” focus of the talks. According to him, the issue is primarily about shipping safety.

“On Monday, we mainly intend to discuss President Putin’s agreement to resume the so-called Black Sea initiative, and our negotiators will be ready to discuss the nuances around this problem,” Peskov said.

Moscow pulled out of the original grain deal – brokered by Turkey and the United Nations – in 2023, accusing the West of failing to live up to its half of the bargain and lift sanctions on Russia’s exports of farm produce and fertilisers.

Separately, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who was not at this round of talks, complained that the Western side had not fulfilled its obligations to relax sanctions on Russian imports of agricultural products and machinery, and said this time round Russia would push for more concessions. In the previous deal, the Kremlin wanted banking sanctions on Russia’s Rosselkhozbank removed, and while the bank has not been mentioned in these talks, it is highly likely that it is also on the agenda.

"We support the return of the Black Sea Initiative in some form, better suited to all," Lavrov said.

"Our position is simple: we cannot take this man at his word," Lavrov said, referring to Vladimir Zelenskiy, TASS reported. Russia would like "the market of grain, and the market of fertilisers to be predictable," and for no one to attempt excluding Russia from those markets, the minister added. Moscow is worried about the situation with food in Africa and other countries of the Global South that have been affected by "the West’s games," he claimed.

Energy infrastructure

Putin and Zelenskiy have both agreed in principle to the month-long limited ceasefire, pledging not to attack energy infrastructure in each other’s territories after separate phone calls with Trump. However, those attacks have continued. Putin qualified his commitment to the 30-day deal saying there were “nuances” that presumably are the subject of this week’s talks.

30-day ceasefire

Agreeing on terms to bring a genuine and complete halt to hostilities for 30 days will be much harder. Russia currently enjoys the initiative on the battlefield, having retaken the Kursk region and made slow but steady progress on the Donbas front, albeit at a heavy cost in dead and wounded.

Putin is reluctant to give up his advantage and allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to recover and regroup if there is a pause in the fighting. As a result, the Russian side is insisting on a complete ban on Western weapons deliveries during a mooted ceasefire, a halt to Ukraine’s recruitment drive and a monitoring system.

The Russian president said during a news conference on March 13: “Who will give orders to stop hostilities? … Who will determine where and who has violated a possible ceasefire agreement for 2,000 km?”

So far none of these things have been conceded and remain the subject of the negotiations.

Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz outlined the stages of the ceasefire. A ceasefire on the front line will be the final step before signing a peace agreement in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with intermediate stages to occur beforehand.

The first step toward de-escalation and conflict resolution should be a mutual halt to attacks on energy infrastructure.

"Both sides need to stop launching drones and missiles at nuclear power plants [NPPs], oil pipelines and energy networks. After all, everything will eventually need to be restored," said Waltz.

The second step is an exchange of prisoners as a gesture of goodwill.

The third step will focus on maritime security.

"Both countries have access to the Black Sea, and they need to trade oil, gas and grain to sustain their populations and others," noted Trump's adviser.

The fourth stage, a ceasefire on the front, will be the most challenging.

"The most difficult issue is the so-called line of control. This is trench warfare that stretches nearly 800 miles (almost 1,300 kilometres)," he said. Waltz hinted that the two sides planned to iron out these technicalities during their meeting on March 24.

“We’ll talk the line of control, which is the actual front lines, and that gets into the details of verification mechanisms, peacekeeping, you know, freezing the lines where they are,” he told CBS.

Miscellaneous

Less pressing items on the agenda include prisoner swaps and the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children. The US-Ukraine ceasefire statement from March 11 stressed “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children” during the 30 days. Waltz told CBS that the return of these children is among several “confidence building” measures that could be discussed.

However, the US once again revealed a heavy bias for the Russian position in the run up to the talks. Steve Witkoff, who met Putin in early March, rejected allies’ concerns about the Russian leader’s aspirations for European territory in an interview with US celebrity journalist Tucker Carlson on March 22, where he parroted many Kremlin talking points, including claims that the 2023 referenda used to justify the annexation of four Ukrainian regions were free and fair – a point widely dismissed by the international community.

“I just don’t see that he [Putin] wants to take all of Europe. This is a much different situation than it was in World War II. “I feel that he [Putin] wants peace,” he told Fox News on March 23.

Russia talks

Even fewer details were released from the Russian talks the next day. Reports given to the Trump administration by the US technical team in Riyadh "looked optimistic," CBS News reported, citing sources familiar with the situation. Trump, who has not given a deadline, says he is keen to see a full ceasefire in place by Easter.

The closed-door meeting lasted more than 12 hours with three breaks on March 24 at The Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh behind closed doors. The Russian side was represented by Advisor to the Director of the FSB Sergei Beseda and Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin, who, as explained by the Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, are experienced diplomats with a good understanding of the international agenda.

From 2009 to 2024 Beseda headed the famous "Fifth Department" of the Federal Security Service (FSB), which is involved in foreign intelligence activities, particularly within the countries of the former Soviet Union.

He was reported in Ukraine during the country's Maidan Revolution in 2014, when protesters overthrew a pro-Russian authoritarian government. Some Western authors suggested he was there to convince Ukraine's leadership to suppress the protest movement by force.

The American delegation included Senior Director for Europe at the US National Security Council Andrew Peek, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department Michael Anton and others. Anton is a prominent conservative strategist and has spoken dismissively of former president Joe Biden's staunch support for Ukraine.

Peek, like Witkoff, is another Middle East expert. A veteran of Trump's first administration and, like Beseda, a former spy, Peek was a US Army intelligence officer and, from 2017 to 2019, served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran. He later oversaw Russian affairs at the NSC before being placed on administrative leave in January 2020.

The talks with the Russians were clearly much wider ranging than those with the Ukrainian team.

“We’re talking about territory now. We’re talking about demarcation lines, we’re talking about power, we’re talking about ownership of [Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP)],” Trump said on March 24, expressing general satisfaction with the progress of the talks and praising Putin for his participation.

RIA Novosti, citing a source, reports that the Russian delegation is in a good mood after negotiations with US representatives in Saudi Arabia.

The New York Times (NYT) reported that restarting business ties with Russia was also on the agenda. Moscow is also interested in importing spare parts for American-made Boeing passenger aircraft and restoring direct flights between the countries. In exchange, Russia could allow US airlines to fly over Siberia, which it banned in 2022.

Tough talks

Trump wants the Ukraine issue and its costs to go away, while Putin is interested in securing sovereign control over the regions that Russia has occupied, ensuring that Ukraine never joins Nato and getting sanctions relief.

But that asymmetry is the main difficulty in the current Russo-American negotiations, Andrey Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, told Vedomosti. While the Russian side adheres to the classical style of building a negotiating position, the US, represented by Trump, has a more chaotic style. But, according to Kortunov, there are three areas in which progress is possible. The first is diplomatic communication. The second is sanctions policy. The third is regional cooperation, possibly in the Arctic. 

Another problem is that Trump sees the talks in terms of his media coverage and deal-making skills, whereas the Russian side is focused on eliminating the root cause of the conflict – anxiety over its long-term security, manifest in its fear that Ukraine will join Nato. If the Russo-Ukraine conflict gets bogged down, Trump is likely to push the issue onto Europe and focus on doing a deal in the Middle East, which is running in parallel to the Russo-Ukraine talks, speculates Kortunov.