Far-right, independent candidate Calin Georgescu has taken a shock lead in the first round of the presidential election in Romania, with 22.74% of the votes after the counting of 99.25% of the reports sent by polling stations.

A win for Georgescu in the second round, which is not likely if all the other parties join forces, would prompt a major political crisis in Romania. 

As of early on November 25, the fight for second place in the first round and a spot against Georgescu in the second round of the presidential election on December 8 was tight. The reformist candidate Elena Lasconi of Union Save Romania (USR) was ranking second with 19.17% of the votes versus 19.15% for Social Democrat (PSD) leader Marcel Ciolacu when nearly all votes were reported. 

Georgescu’s second round rival still has to be confirmed officially, but Marcel Ciolacu didn't imply a re-count but rather announced plans to resign from the top of his party. 

National Liberal Party (PNL) leader Nicolae Ciuca, who expected the second round spot against Ciolacu, has already announced his imminent resignation.

Far-right views 

Georgescu is best known for his pro-Russian and far-right views, close to those of the Iron Guard, the Romanian militant counter-revolutionary fascist movement and political party founded in 1927 by Corneliu Zelea Codreanu. 

He served as a United Nation expert for more than a decade appointed after a brief career within the Romanian governments after the fall of the communism, as an environment specialist. Georgescu was repeatedly mentioned over the past decade by the Social Democrats and later by nationalist AUR as a potential prime minister.  But nationalist AUR distanced itself from Georgescu due to the radical and open pro-Russian views, not shared by AUR George Simion despite repeated allegations in this regard. 

Georgescu's lead in the first round came as a shock as polls indicated he would come in around sixth place. While there is speculation that Russian interference could have played a part in his unexpected victory, it has also been attributed to disillusionment with established politicians, particularly those from Romania’s two ruling parties, the PSD and PNL.  It is a fact that his activity on the social networks was unexpectedly strong and probably not possible without the consolidation of ample resources. The nature of these resources still has to be identified.

Georgescu is believed to have taken large numbers of votes from disappointed voters of the PSD and PNL, as well as from fellow far-right candidate George Simion and other voters who been influenced by Georgescu’s nationalist rhetoric.

The 62-year-old politician’s unexpected success is also believed to be down to his activity on TikTok and other social networks, where he promotes radical rhetoric against the national and global establishment, as well as expounding on mystic and Orthodox Christian themes. 

"I voted ... for the humiliated, for those who feel that they do not matter in this world and they are the ones that matter!"Georgescu wrote on his Instagram account after casting his vote on November 24. "Today, the vote is a prayer for the nation." 

Despite having previously held positions in various UN bodies with the recommendation of the Romanian government, he frequently uses social media platforms to rail against Nato and the EU. Even after voicing radical views, he was given credit by public institutions such as the national TV station where he was repeatedly invited, which contributed to consolidating its credibility later capitalised on social networks.

Political shake-up

After Ciuca’s resignation, a failure to make it to the second round would likely lead to Lasconi’s ousting at USR. The weak score for Ciolacu, projected by polls as the clear frontrunner, is also seen as a failure. 

The first round result does not bode well for Romania’s two ruling parties, the PSD and PNL, ahead of the December 1 parliamentary election. There is now speculation that the two far-right parties, Simion’s Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), seen as the closest political force to Georgescu who does not have a party, and SOS Romania, may receive the largest number of votes or at least complicate the formation of a majority. 

The candidates of the parties in the incumbent ruling coalition received just 30% of the votes, slightly less than the two nationalist candidates. AUR leader George Simion, who was expected to outperform Georgescu, came fourth in the first round of the presidential election. Simion has moderated his views recently, but has expressed support for Georgescu, whom his party recently mentioned as its preferred prime minister.