Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban ramped up the fearmongering in the last mile of the European Parliament election campaign, raising the stakes by claiming that Hungary can only stay out of the war if Fidesz achieves the largest electoral victory in Europe on June 9.

The ruling nationalist party organised a rally on June 1 to strengthen its wavering base as polls show a slow but steady erosion in support since the Fidesz paedophile pardon scandal four months ago, leading to the resignation of the president and the justice minister.

Orban's goal is not to win new voters or lure undecided, pundits say, as he "only" needs to mobilise his 2mn core supporters, which could be enough to secure at least 45% of the votes, which would translate to 11-12 seats out of the 21 in the Hungarian representation in the European Parliament.

The prime minister, facing a new challenger in the person of former Fidesz cadre, Peter Magyar, who has emerged as a major contender after the paedophile scandal and enjoys 20-25%  support. His arrival in the political arena has turned Hungarian politics upside down and made the race one of the most exciting since Orban swept to power in 2010.

The prime minister, who turned 61 on Friday, has shifted his focus solely to the EP elections, placing it over local government elections held on the same day.

Turnout at Saturday’s rally was by far the lowest since the Fidesz-funded civil group (COF) first launched the so-called Peace March in 2012, which has nothing to do with peace, instead, it was a show of support for the ruling party at a time when the government came under pressure for amending the constitutions and making the first steps in dismantling the checks and balances after its first supermajority victory. In hindsight, this marked the start of the demise of the rule of law and democratic institutions in Hungary, as  Orban’s continued to solidify his grip on power with every vote after 2010 by rewriting the election laws.

An estimated 30-40,000 people proceeded through Margaret Bridge, linking the Buda and Pest side of the city with Margaret Island, a favourite recreational zone for locals. The size of the crowd was small compared to earlier rallies and the more than 100,000 people two years ago at the campaign finish before the 2022 parliamentary elections.  As on previous occasions, supporters were bussed from all parts of the country and from neighbouring countries. Ethnic Hungarians from Romania reportedly received free lunch and €20-25 from local politicians to participate in the campaign event.

There was little doubt what the main message of Orban's speech would be, as the prime minister made the question of war and peace his main campaign agenda, overshadowing all issues. In his regular radio interview on Friday, he warned that every week "brings us closer to war." and that Europe "might be bringing Russian forces closer" by financing Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.

According to the prime minister, these actions signal a shift from talks to preparation for destruction, placing Europe on the brink of a larger conflict.

At the start of the rally, his supporters chanted the prime minister’s first name aloud to wish him a happy birthday.

Today, Hungary is stronger than at any time in the last hundred years, a peaceful island in the middle of Europe. But the crucial question is already knocking on our door: whether we will give up peace. Renouncing peace means dying for Ukraine. Do we want to give Hungarian blood for Ukraine? No, this is the justice of the Hungarians, and it is our job to make the justice of the Hungarians the justice of Europe, Orban told his supporters.

The rhetoric aligned with comments by his foreign minister, who had falsely claimed the EU was planning to introduce an EU-wide compulsory military conscription, a misinformation that had been amplified by Orban’s vast propaganda machine in recent weeks.

Hungary’s pro-Russian leader used the same fearmongering strategy at the finish of the 2022 election campaign by saying that the joint prime minister candidate of the opposition wanted to send troops to Ukraine, spinning an interview question out of context. After being asked numerous times in the interview, Peter Marki-Zay grudgingly said Hungary would send soldiers to Ukraine only if directly requested by Nato to do so. 

Orban again warned that Hungary would be dragged into war if the opposition won. He also accused his EU and Nato allies of supporting the escalation of the conflict by sending weapons to the war-torn country to defend itself and has argued that these jeopardize Europe's economic stability and peace.

The strengthening of right-wing populist parties in Europe and the possible election victory of Donald Trump would create a "transatlantic peace coalition", Orban said at the campaign event, adding that on June 9, every vote cast for Fidesz is worth two, and it increases the weight of the European pro-peace movement and confirms Hungary's decision to stay out.

According to analysts, Orban has raised the stakes of the election by saying that war and death will ensue if Fidesz fails to make a convincing victory. He is resorting to a level of disinformation and misinformation unseen in recent history. While he continues to blast his allies, he refrains from naming Russian dictator Vladimir Putin as the cause of the conflict.

The prime minister said 'war' 47 times during his 33-minute speech.

Klara Dobrev, the EP list leader of DK-MSZP-Parbeszed, called Orban "the only pro-war politician in Europe" and said he had signed a "dirty deal" with  Putin on gas that required Hungarians to pay "the highest gas prices in Europe". "Viktor Orban is financing Putin's war in Ukraine with Hungarian money," she added.

Anna Donath, the head of liberal Momentum, said Orban had "taken a stand for Russia's total victory and Ukraine's defeat behind a peace banner". Anybody who is pro-peace backs Ukraine, not Russia, she added in a post on Facebook. Donath said supporting Ukraine to defend itself and win its fight for freedom would lead to peace.

Peter Magyar, who according to his accounts took part in the 2022 rally, also weighed in, saying Saturday's 'Peace March' was the smallest on record, despite the hundreds of millions spent on it.

A significant proportion of Fidesz voters no longer support an arrogant regime that has made Hungary the poorest and second most corrupt country in the EU. The Hungarian people do not support the artificial polarisation of the country by the elite but want peace, tranquillity and a liveable country, he added. 

Magyar is also raising the stakes of the election. Weeks before, he called for a campaign closing event for June 8, which in his words would be the largest political demonstration ever. The former Fidesz insider is hoping that he can draw more people to Heroes' Square than in his April rally, attended by more than 200,000 people.