The Kyrgyz Republic’s “Tulip” or “People’s” Revolution – the 20^th anniversary of which falls on March 24 – is one of the most significant events experienced by Central Asia since the arrival of its post-Soviet independence in 1991. The revolt changed the trajectory of the whole region.

Era of relative calm

As 2005 got under way, the Central Asian states were experiencing a period of relative tranquility and tolerance.

The September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States had led Washington to quickly expand ties with Central Asia. The US and other Nato countries were using bases in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to support the US-led operation in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The Central Asian countries were able to breathe easier after the American and other Western forces drove the Taliban from power in Afghanistan and lifted Central Asia’s concerns about the Afghan border with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

The Western nations poured aid money into Central Asia, alleviating the financial problems that plagued its countries during the 1990s. With this enhanced Western presence and attention, countries such as Uzbekistan, where political opposition was nearly eliminated during the late 1990s, relaxed restrictions on the activities of opposition groups. The latter were allowed to hold meetings publicly for the first time in years.

The situation was similar across Central Asia, with the exception of isolationist Turkmenistan.

Relieved of their anxieties over Afghanistan, and anxious to ingratiate themselves with their Western partners, the Central Asian governments were more tolerant towards their citizens.

Parliamentary elections and revolution

Kyrgyzstan was scheduled to conduct parliamentary elections in late February 2005.

In contrast to its Central Asian neighbours, such polls in Kyrgyzstan were extremely energetic due to the large number of political parties and movements, with the country’s vibrant civil society effectively organising rallies and protests.

The battle for seats in the 2000 parliamentary elections was fought both on the campaign trail and in the courtrooms when some opposition candidates were barred from participating. They were filled with controversy.

Anticipation built that the 2005 elections would be more raucous than those in 2000.

Askar Akayev, left, seen in November 2021 with then president of Moldova Vladimir Voronin (Credit: Kremlin.ru).

At the start of January 2005, former Kyrgyz foreign minister Roza Otunbayeva registered as a candidate for the elections, only to have her registration revoked several hours later. It turned out that Otunbayeva was trying to run for a seat in the same Bishkek voting district as then-president Askar Akayev’s daughter Bermet.

Akayev’s son Aidar was also running in the elections and rumours quickly spread that the poll was being rigged to fill parliament with Akayev loyalists.

A group called With the People – For the People was circulating a petition to call for a referendum to prolong Akayev’s term as president. By mid-February, it bore 155,000 signatures.

Protests started in Bishkek and quickly spread throughout the country.

(Credit: Aris Katsaris, cc-by-sa 3.0).

Hanging over Kyrgyzstan were the spectres of the November 2003 “Rose” Revolution in Georgia and the “Orange” Revolution in Ukraine, which was in its final stages in January 2005.

President Akayev and other officials warned citizens against trying to foment a revolution in Kyrgyzstan.

As the February 27 date for the first round of parliamentary elections approached, protests involving thousands of people broke out in several parts of the country. Voting had to be postponed in the northeastern Tong district due to demonstrations.

Only 28 of the 75 seats available were decided in the first round. Opposition leaders, including Otunbayeva, complained of flagrant election day violations.

For the authorities, things spiralled out of control after a second round of voting in parliamentary polls (Credit: Eurasia (@EurasiaOnYT) YouTube channel, screenshot).

Protests continued. In the southern city of Jalal-Abad, some 2,000 people stormed and occupied the local administration building in early March.

The second round of voting took place on March 13 and the situation in Kyrgyzstan quickly deteriorated after that.

Protesters stormed provincial and local administration buildings around the country.

On March 24, more than 2,000 protesters clashed with police outside the government building in Bishkek, eventually forcing their way into the building.

The president fled the country, and a provisional government of opposition leaders assumed temporary power.

Ripple effects

The presidents of the other Central Asian countries were stunned.

Like Akayev, all of them except Tajik President Emomali Rahmon had been in power since the closing chapter of the Soviet Union period and even Rahmon had been Tajikistan’s leader since November 1992.

When a protest turned violent in the eastern Uzbek city of Andijan, near the Kyrgyz border, less than two months after Kyrgyzstan’s revolution, Uzbek authorities wasted no time sending in the military to restore order.

What resulted was probably the biggest massacre seen in Central Asia since independence, though Uzbek officials maintain to this day that only 189 people were killed, both soldiers and armed attackers, as well as civilians.

Witnesses have said the real figure could be five times higher or more.

The message was clear. There would be no repeat of Kyrgyzstan’s revolution in Uzbekistan.

The other Central Asian states started taking pre-emptive measures to head off a Kyrgyzstan-type scenario.

Kazakhstan’s parliament had always included representatives of opposition parties, albeit in ever-diminishing numbers, but in the 2007 parliamentary elections, the ruling Nur-Otan party won all 98 seats. Genuine opposition parties were squeezed out of politics. No new opposition parties have been officially registered in Kazakhstan since Kyrgyzstan’s Tulip Revolution.

The same three pro-government parties – Nur-Otan, Ak-Zhol and the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan (renamed the People’s Party of Kazakhstan in 2020) – were the only parties to win seats in parliament in the 2012, 2016 and 2021 elections.

The tolerance shown to Uzbek opposition parties that started in 2001, quickly came to an end.

Under the terms of the peace deal that ended the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, 30% of the seats in government were given to wartime opponents. Until Kyrgyzstan’s revolution, the Tajik government upheld that agreement. But a different approach then took hold, with the government gradually cracking down on the country’s opposition parties.

The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), a battlefield opponent of the government during the civil war, had won seats in parliament in all the elections held since the peace accord, but in the 2015 elections it won none.

Soon after the party’s registration was revoked. And not long after that, the IRPT was declared an extremist group and banned. The move effectively removed the last formidable opposition group in Tajikistan.

Under pressure, the Kyrgyz administration of Akayev accused Western nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) of supporting and even plotting with opposition forces to overthrow the government.

The other Central Asian leaders also seemed to believe this was the case, especially the Uzbek government. Uzbek authorities ejected most of the Western NGOs and foreign media before the end of 2005.

Outside of Kyrgyzstan, protests were completely shut down in Central Asian countries, with some notable exceptions in Kazakhstan; an oil workers’ strike in 2011, a protest against rumoured leasing of land to Chinese in 2016 and antigovernment protests in January 2022.

Two more revolutions

Since the events of 2005, Kyrgyzstan has been through two more revolutions, one in 2010 and another in 2020. The country’s political opposition and civil society groups played large roles in both.

Taking no chances. Present-day president of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, right, seen with Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirizoyev (Credit: president.kg).

Current president, Sadyr Japarov, and his national security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev came to power after the 2020 revolution. Since then, they have worked to prevent any more revolutions by employing methods used by their neighbours.

Japarov and Tashiyev have strengthened the security force and warned publicly that any attempt to topple the government would be crushed.

Authorities claim to have thwarted several plots.

Leaders from several opposition political parties have been detained on dubious charges and held for long periods of time.

Civil society groups have been harassed into silence and authorities imposed a “temporary” ban on protests in March 2022. It has been extended several times and gradually expanded. The ban remains in effect to this day.

Independent media in Kyrgyzstan has been place under severe pressure.

Last year, a court ordered one leading independent outlet, Kloop Media, to be shut down. Another outlet, 24.kg, had its office closed until a pro-government owner took over.

Kyrgyzstan’s 2005 revolution seemed to be a moment of triumph over the country’s entrenched leadership and a warning to other Central Asian countries of the possible consequences of rigging elections and staying in power for too long.

Twenty years later, however, it appears that the lesson taken from the Tulip Revolution by Central Asia’s leaders, including the present Kyrgyz leadership, was to tighten their grip and stamp out any hint of rebellion.