Polish core inflation eases to 3.7% y/y in August

Polish core inflation eases to 3.7% y/y in August

/ bne IntelliNews

By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw September 17, 2024

Poland’s core inflation, an indicator that measures price growth without including food and energy, eased to 3.7% y/y in August (chart) after a gain of 3.8% y/y the preceding month, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on September 17.

Core inflation is, in effect, back on the easing path, where it has been since the second half of 2023, with an exception in July. Meanwhile, the CPI picked up 0.1pp to 4.3% y/y in August, according to the statistical office GUS earlier this month. The NBP’s inflation target is 2.5%, with a deviation of 1pp either way.

Analysts expect core inflation to return to slight growth in the coming months, as the measure still “shows the effects of higher costs being passed on to consumers”, PKO BP said in a comment.

In that context, the NBP is unlikely to ease monetary policy soon. The NBP is currently expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.75% until mid-2025, with any changes coming only after there is more clarity about the inflation rate’s trajectory.

In month-on-month terms, core inflation growth eased to 0.3% in August, following a gain of 0.4% m/m in July, the NBP data also showed.

#macro #Poland #inflation #coreinflation #CPI #NBP #monetarypolicy #interestrates

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