Polish core inflation rate eases to 3.6% y/y in February

Polish core inflation rate eases to 3.6% y/y in February

Polish core inflation rate eases to 3.6% y/y in February. / bne IntelliNews

By bne IntelliNews March 18, 2025

Poland’s core inflation, an indicator that measures price growth without including prices of food and energy, eased growth to 3.6% year on year in February (chart) after a gain of 3.7% y/y the preceding month, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on March 17.

The easing is likely due to the high base effect from the previous year – core inflation rate came in at 5.4% y/y in February 2024 – but also to the weakening of labour cost dynamics, limited demand pressure and subdued inflation abroad.

The NBP assumes that both headline and core inflation will ease gradually in 2025, with risks to the forecast including the economic situation in the Eurozone and a possible trade war between the US and the EU.

Headline CPI picked came in at 4.9% y/y in February, the same growth rate as in the preceding month (the CPI rate for which was revised down from 5.3% y/y, however).

The NBP’s inflation target is 2.5%, with a deviation of 1pp either way. In that context, the NBP is unlikely to ease monetary policy soon – but is expected to do so in the second half of 2025.

The NBP’s reference rate has been at a 20-year high of 5.75% since October 2023.

#macro #Poland #inflation #coreinflation #CPI #NBP #monetarypolicy #interestrates

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