Automotive sector output in Hungary edges up 1.6% y/y in February
5 hours ago
Poland’s GDP grew 4% in 2018, a slowdown of 1.1pp versus 2018, a preliminary estimate from the country's statistical office GUS showed on January 29.
The breakdown of the data shows household consumption – the main driver of growth in recent years – weakened last year, as did investment. The figures also point to a sharp deceleration of economic growth in the fourth quarter y/y, possibly to below 3% y/y.
The full year result arrives on the back of household consumption expanding 3.9%, 0.4pp below the expansion in 2018. Fixed investment expanded 7.8% last year, slower than 8.9% in 2018. Overall, however, investment slowed down much more sharply – to 3% from 10.1%.
“The annual GDP growth figure was significantly lower than last year’s outturn of 5.1% and a bit below the consensus forecast [of 4.2%]. [The breakdown of the data] shows that the slowdown was due to domestic demand – mainly investment. Total investment growth weakened by much more than fixed investment, suggesting that inventories dragged on growth,” Capital Economics wrote in a comment on the figures.
“Household consumption slowed more modestly. Overall consumption weakened only a touch last year, suggesting that government consumption growth picked up. That may be related to fiscal stimulus launched ahead of last year’s election,” Capital Economics added.
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Data
Automotive sector output in Hungary edges up 1.6% y/y in February
Headline industrial output rose 1.8% in February, increasing for the first month in about a year.
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Slovak inflation eased further to 2.3% in March
Prices in the alcohol and tobacco sector increased by 19% y/y, including the 9.1% spike in tobacco prices as a result of the new consumption tax.
Polish inflation eases further to 2% y/y in March
The inflation rate landed within the National Bank of Poland’s target of 1.5%-3.5% for a second successive month
CEE falling inflation trend comes to an end
After spiking to 20-year highs thanks to the pandemic and Europe’s Russian induced energy crisis, inflation rates across the EU have tumbled in recent months. That trend has ended and CEE central banks are expected to hike rates again in 2H24.
Hungary’s CPI edges lower, but price pressures remain in service sector
Consumer prices in Hungary rose 3.6% y/y in March, but services' prices rose almost 10%.
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