Croatians are expected to overwhelmingly back incumbent President Zoran Milanovic in the second round of the presidential election on January 12. 

The runoff follows a first round held in December, where Milanovic narrowly missed securing an outright victory. Despite controversies over his stance on Ukraine and accusations that he favours Russia, Milanovic remains highly popular in Croatia. 

His expected second round victory sets the stage for a continuation of the tense cohabitation with Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic’s government, which has frequently erupted into public arguments between president and prime minister.

In the first round on December 29, Milanovic took 49.11% of the vote — just shy of the majority required to win outright. His closest rival, independent Dragan Primorac, backed by the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), secured just 19.36%. The remaining six candidates received less than 10% each. 

The 30-point gap between Milanovic and Primorac in the first round was the largest margin ever recorded between contenders in a Croatian presidential runoff.

A poll carried out in the first week of January by Croatian broadcaster RTL projects a commanding lead for Milanovic in the second round, with 62.5% of voters expected to back him compared to 27.8% for Primorac. 

Milanovic has gained eight percentage points since the December vote, while Primorac has lost seven, according to RTL's analysis of the poll results. This shift is attributed to Milanovic’s ability to galvanize his base and capitalise on the fragmented support for the first-round candidates.

More than 61% of people who voted for third-placed candidate Marija Selak Raspudic in the first round told RTL they will back Milanovic in the second, while only a fifth of them will choose Primorac.

The poll also showed that while supporters of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) overwhelmingly want Milanovic to be re-elected — 97.3% said they would vote for the incumbent president — only 81.7% of HDZ supporters said they would vote for Primorac, while 12.2% plan to back Milanovic. 

6.8% of voters remain undecided, and 2.9% said they will spoil their ballots, RTL said. 

A televised debate broadcast live by public broadcaster HRT drew record viewership and provided both candidates with a final opportunity to sway voters. Milanovic emphasised his track record, while Primorac sought to present himself as a unifying figure committed to Croatia’s Western alliances.

Polarising candidate

Milanovic, seeking a second five-year term, has been one of Croatia’s most polarising political figures. While the presidency is largely ceremonial, Milanović is known for his outspoken leadership style and controversial statements. 

His relationship with Plenkovic has been marked by public clashes over foreign policy, military decisions and Croatia’s stance on the war in Ukraine.

Milanovic has faced criticism for what some perceive as a pro-Russian stance, particularly his opposition to Croatia’s involvement in a Nato training missions in Ukraine. In October, tensions escalated when Milanovic blocked General Tihomir Kundid, the chief of the general staff, from attending a parliamentary Defence Committee meeting. The move led the HDZ to accuse the president of attempting a “coup”.

Despite the controversies, Milanović has maintained strong support among voters who view him as a defender of Croatia’s sovereignty and national interests.

Primorac’s struggle for support

Primorac, a university professor and paediatrician, has framed his campaign around themes of unity and strengthening Croatia’s ties with the European Union and Nato. Backed by the HDZ, he entered the race as a credible contender but has struggled to gain traction, and his standing was harmed by a corruption scandal that has embroiled the ruling party.

The recent arrest of the health minister on bribery charges cast a shadow over Primorac’s campaign. While Plenkovic quickly dismissed the minister and promised reforms, the scandal has further eroded public trust in the government, particularly in the healthcare sector.

Adding to the HDZ’s challenges, public sector workers staged protests demanding higher wages in the weeks leading up to the election. A deal was reached on December 27, just two days before the first round vote, to increase base pay for state employees. 

Allegations of Russian interference

The presidential runoff has also been clouded by allegations of Russian interference. A report from the London-based Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) identified a pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign aimed at boosting support for Milanovic, according to a report published on January 8.

The CIR report, produced in collaboration with Croatian researchers, revealed a network of bot accounts promoting pro-Russian narratives and attacking Primorac. These accounts, active across platforms such as Facebook, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok, frequently shared content amplifying Milanovic’s criticisms of Western military support for Ukraine.

“The accounts ... appeared to mobilise in two waves: following Milanović’s first-place finish in the first round of voting and after his statements opposing potential Croatian involvement in the Ukraine war,” the CIR said.

According to the report, Russian state-controlled media outlets, including RT Balkans, amplified Milanovic’s messaging. According to CIR, 10 of the 14 articles published about Milanovic since December by RT Balkans were favourable or neutral-to-favourable.

Croatian Minister of Culture and Media Nina Obuljen Korzinek expressed alarm over the findings, calling for increased vigilance in combating disinformation.

“If this data is accurate, and from what is written it seems to be credible, then this is a reason for enormous concern for all of us,” Korzinek told reporters as quoted by Vijesti. “Croatia would not be the first country in Europe to witness Russian influence on the elections.”

The allegations come amid heightened scrutiny of Russian interference in elections in Emerging Europe. There have been accusations of Kremlin-backed efforts to undermine democratic processes in Georgia, Moldova and Romania in recent months.