Georgia is locked in a constitutional crisis, which looks set to intensify on December 14 when the ruling Georgian Dream party (GD) plans to vote in its presidential candidate, ex-footballer and party loyalist, Mikheil Kavelashvili, to replace the outgoing Salome Zourabichvili, who, throughout the latter half of her six-year term, has emerged as one of GD’s most outspoken critics.

Both Zourabichvili and GD accuse the other of violating Georgia’s constitution, leading to a standoff between the institutions of government and president. 

This will likely come to a head on election day, against a backdrop of nationwide anti-government protests, backed by the pro-European Zourabichvili, which began a fortnight ago following a U-turn by the newly elected GD parliament on Georgia’s EU membership bid.

The incumbent president has announced that, as the country’s “only legitimate institution”, she will not be leaving office upon the expiration of her term on December 16. She claims the GD party rigged the October 26 parliamentary elections, the new government is not legitimate, and it therefore cannot elect her legitimate successor.

“I remain your president,” Zourabichvili stated in an address to the nation on November 30. “An illegitimate parliament cannot elect a new president, so my mandate continues until a legally elected parliament is formed and lawfully elects a new president,” the outgoing president continued.

In response, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that Zourabichvili “will have to leave” her presidential seat at Tbilisi’s Orbeliani Palace and “hand over her residence” to the new president following the inauguration ceremony, which the ruling party has scheduled for December 29. 

Indirect election

Following constitutional reforms adopted by the GD parliament in 2017, the new president will be indirectly elected by a 300-member electoral college comprised of MPs and municipal government representatives, rather than directly elected by a public vote, as the last five heads of state were, including Zourabichvili. 

The date for the presidential election was announced by the parliament speaker, Shalva Papuashvili, on November 26, the day after the inaugural session of the newly elected parliament, at which only GD MPs were present. Georgia’s pro-Western opposition parties have renounced their MP mandates, citing fraudulent elections.

On December 12, Georgia’s pro-Western opposition forces released statements rejecting the legitimacy of the upcoming presidential elections, calling the parliamentary vote “rigged” and reaffirming Zourabichvili as the country’s "sole legitimate leader".

Come December 14, Kavelashvili is virtually certain to be elected, firstly since GD enjoys a ruling majority in the electoral college, and secondly because it is the only party in parliament, meaning its nominee remains the sole candidate for the presidency. 

“They [Georgian Dream] took [our vote] away from us; while being the only party in parliament they just decided to vote within themselves who is going to be the next president, and they chose some arbitrary, ex-football player who has no real political game to him and is not loved by the people,” a member of Georgia’s National Guard, who wished to remain anonymous, told bne IntelliNews in an exclusive interview. The National Guard is a branch of the Georgian military, of which President Zourabichvili holds the ceremonial role of commander-in-chief.

“Georgian Dream looked at their crew and decided that [Kavelashvili] was going to be the most loyal, and would never betray them like Salome did,” the source said, alluding to Kavelashvili’s consistent anti-Western rhetoric in comparison with Zourabichvili’s growing reputation as a rallying point for Georgia’s pro-Western opposition.

The incumbent president has emerged as leading figure in Georgia’s ongoing anti-government resistance movement in recent weeks and acts as an ambassador for the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. 

“After [GD] saw the power and support Salome is amassing, that she is becoming this figure that unites the opposition and that she’s doing the most in holding power in relationships with international partners, they saw her as a new threat,” the source told bne IntelliNews.

In installing its own candidate as president, the source argued, the ruling party is essentially subordinating Georgia’s last free institution to its rule. “There is not even a veil of democracy anymore; everything is owned and held by GD, and this will now apply to the presidency too,” the National Guard member said.

Election day and beyond

As many in Georgia see it, the presidential election on December 14 signals GD tightening its grip on the country even further. Anti-government, pro-EU protests in Tbilisi, which for the past few nights have remained peaceful, are likely to ramp up. Things could get particularly nasty if GD, which demonstrators accuse of forming an illegitimate government, attempts to remove the outgoing president by force. 

Perhaps in an attempt to divert attention away from the proceedings, Tbilisi mayor Kakha Kaladze has announced that the city’s festive lights switch on will take place on December 14, centring around the large Christmas tree which was recently set up in front of parliament, and which demonstrators bedecked with EU and Georgian flags and photos of those beaten by police.

“Unfortunately, both domestically and abroad, there are certain forces that, in recent days, have been trying to stir unrest in the country,” Kaladze stated on December 12, alluding to the ruling party’s claims that the pro-Western opposition, with the help of unspecified foreign actors, are attempting to incite a “Maidan” style revolution in Georgia.

“Let’s light the capital’s main Christmas tree together and focus on the victories of our homeland,” the Tbilisi mayor continued. Judging by the unceasing momentum of the ongoing protest movement, it seems unlikely that Georgians will be distracted by holiday festivities.

The ruling party also seems to want to neutralise what influence Zourabichvili may be able have once she does ultimately leave office. On December 11 the parliament hastily attempted to push through a bill which would strip the outgoing president of her right to state protection for one year after the end of her term. GD stated that Zourabichvili is guilty of breaching the Georgian constitution and revoking her immunity may signal intentions to prosecute her after she has left office.

On December 10, Georgia’s State Security Service issued a statement warning that “local criminal actors ... coordinated by foreign intelligence agencies” would attempt to disrupt elections proceedings on December 14 by escalating ongoing protests, potentially resulting in two to three fatalities and an “artificially created governmental crisis”. 

It seems likely that this is a false provocation which the ruling party is using to set the stage for a further crackdown on protesters on December 14 and beyond. The mention of casualties could potentially signal the introduction of more violent measures than have been deployed by riot police so far at the nightly protests on Rustaveli Avenue, which have resulted in over 400 arrests and hundreds of injuries.

bne IntelliNews’ source agrees, highlighting that the police’s daily “witch-hunt” and “violent abuse” of protesters will continue throughout December and intensify around the time of the new president’s inauguration at the end of the month.

The National Guard member also doubted whether the inauguration ceremony, currently scheduled for December 29, will be able to take place publicly, given the huge anger among Georgians filing the streets.

“I don’t think they’ll be able to bring their people to Rustaveli avenue and bring out this presidential candidate without him getting hit with a stone. Like everything that GD does, it will be behind closed doors involving only themselves, it is single-party rule,” the source said.

Apparently to try to deter any public unrest, according to the Georgian pro-opposition channel Mtavari TV, GD intends to declare a state of emergency and introduce a curfew following Kavelashvili’s inauguration on December 29, essentially initiating martial law in the country. 

This raises the question of why Zourabichvili could not declare martial law herself in her last days in office, which would place the rule of the country in the hands of the armed forces, which she commands. 

“Salome is trying to play by the rules,” the National Guard member told bne IntelliNews when asked this question. “On the one side there is apparent abuse of power; an apparent dictatorial, Kremlin style regime that is holding onto power through force. Salome needs to retain the moral high ground over this and imposing martial law would be unpopular even among her supporters. She would be basically starting a civil war,” the source continued.

Mutual accusations

Once he inevitably claims the presidential post at the end of December, Kavelashvili has promised to “restore” the “integrity” of the country’s presidential institution, which he claims had been “damaged” under the tenure of Zourabichvili.

The ruling party has declared that in “refusing to convene” the inaugural session of the newly elected parliament in November, Zourabichvili “violated” the country’s constitution. The legislative body gathered anyway on November 25.

For her part, Zourabichvili has stated that the GD parliament “ripped up the constitution” with the decision to convene parliament, firstly, without her permission, which violates Article 38 of the document, and secondly, while her appeals to the Constitutional Court regarding voter secrecy breaches on polling day were still pending, which breaches Article 30. She also cited widespread irregularities and electoral violations during the October 26 vote, which undermine the legitimacy of the ruling party’s majority.