The final results of the November 24 presidential election first round in Romania confirmed that far-right, pro-Russian independent candidate Călin Georgescu was the winner with 22.94% of the votes. 

Georgescu will meet Elena Lasconi, leader of the reformist party Union Save Romania (USR) in the final round on December 8. This is likely to result in a final win for Lasconi, who meets the electorate’s wish for a change in the political elite while remaining a more moderate and relatively conservative option. Mainstream politicians are expected to unite behind Lasconi to keep Georgescu out of the presidency. 

During the campaign Georgescu expressed radical far-right, antisemite, anti-Western views grounded in the ideology of the religious fascist Iron Guard movement, which briefly ran the country around a century ago. 

Georgescu’s victory can be attributed to his intense nationalist campaigns on social media, primarily TikTok, during the month prior to the election.

Although he won the first round, Georgescu lost a key asset that served him well until now: he will have to step out of the ambiguity facilitated by his TikTok communication and disclose his entire vision. 

His pro-Russian orientation is not typical of Romanian nationalism and may eventually lead to his loss of popularity in the second round. It is not by chance that Lasconi began her campaign against Georgescu by exposing her rival’s pro-Russian orientation.

The mechanics of his campaign and the origin of his resources have raised questions. While direct involvement of Russian intelligence services can not be fully ruled out, it is more likely that there were internal Romanian developments — not least Romanians’ disillusionment with establishment politicians — that resulted in the unexpected outcome of the first voting round.

Georgescu has already secured political support from far-right parties including the Alliance for United Romanians (AUR) and SOS Romania while Lasconi received unconditional support from the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL) in addition to her party USR and its smaller allies.

Georgescu was supported by one third of the voters in the age bracket 18-24 and won the strongest support among the Romanians working in western Europe but only 13% of the voters with higher education. 

Lasconi came in second with 19.18% of the votes, only a few thousand more than the leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (19.15%).