Pro-Russian interference is intensifying ahead of two critical votes on October 20. The presidential election, in which pro-EU President Maia Sandu is currently leading according to polls, and a constitutional referendum on EU membership, initially designed to boost Sandu’s candidacy, are both increasingly vulnerable to Russian influence. 

The Moldovan president’s national security adviser, Stanislav Secrieru, estimated for Politico that Russia will spend some €100mn to interfere with the presidential elections and the pro-EU constitutional referendum in Moldova.  

Compared to the cost of the campaign in Ukraine, the cost is negligible and the estimate very plausible. Moldovan authorities’ efforts to stop the inflow of money proved so far inefficient, except for raising awareness about such practices among the pro-EU electorate.

Fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, a vocal pro-Russian politician currently based in Russia, is reported to have been buying votes against country’s EU membership. Shor also set up an online TV station to replace those closed by authorities for pro-Russian propaganda and has promised free natural gas for the population in case Sandu’s pro-EU referendum fails. 

In separate developments, Shor launched a Telegram channel managed by a chatbot, through which he promises to pay bonuses against “tasks”. Shor claims he already has 800,000 followers – which is a huge number for Moldova’s population of 3.5mn. Given the context, it is not hard to predict the final task to be proposed by Shor, who targets the constitutional referendum rather than the presidential elections.

Meanwhile, populist politician Renato Usatii is capitalising on Moldovans’ conservatorism with claims to defend children against LGBT propaganda. 

Usatii now plans to sue the national TV station on grounds that his clip, including a statement against pro-LGBT propaganda in schools, was banned. The TV station’s head said he asked Usatii to eliminate the problematic statement as it “encourages discrimination”. But the effect was the same: more visibility for the topic that favours Usatii in the eyes of the conservative electorate.