A new populist champion has burst onto the Lithuanian political scene, shaking up what has otherwise been a rather listless campaign ahead of this weekend’s general election.

Remigijus Zemaitaitis, a 42-year-old straight-talking lawyer, has barnstormed around the country, propelling his new Nemuno Ausra (The Dawn of the River Neman) party into second place, according to opinion polls. This could give him the the trump card in the formation of a new government, although nearly all the traditional parties have said they will not enter into coalition talks with him.

Zemaitaitis won a surprising 11 per cent in the presidential election in May, putting him in third place in what he says was an “amazing result”. Since then he has hardened and popularised his rhetoric and now appears to have a chance of building a significant radical right force in Lithuanian politics for the first time, on the lines of Estonia’s EKRE.

“He [Zemaitaitis] has certainly got God‘s gifts – great eloquence and affinity, i.e. being liked by many people from all walks of life, rare qualities among today’s Lithuanian politicians,” Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor at Mykolas Romeris University, told bne IntelliNews.

“By profession he is a lawyer and is able to expostulate complex issues in an understandable language, so my impression is he has expanded his supporter base from blue-collar folks to the educated,” Dumbliauskas says. He forecasts that the Zemaitaitis party will bag up to 15 of the 141 mandates in the new parliament.

But critics also point to his alleged anti-semitism and his scepticism towards Ukraine and Lithuania’s Western allies as potential risks for Lithuania’s democracy. 

Zemaitaitis’ previous party, the conservative eurosceptic Freedom and Justice party (LT), suspended his membership following what were seen as anti-semitic remarks. He resigned as an MP earlier this year after the constitutional court ruled that he had violated his oath and the constitution by posting anti-semitic remarks online. 

His new party also supports US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s policy that aid to Ukraine ought to be provided on the basis of loans.

Zemaitaitis says his party is a broad church and draws policies from both the left and right.

“We aim to represent as wide a spectrum of opinions as possible; we’re leaning towards centre-left on social issues related to people’s wellbeing, but we are on the right when it comes to what makes statehood – our language, culture and national identity,” Zemaitaitis told bne IntelliNews. “Unfortunately, in the EU, we see bad examples when some of the countries are seeing their identities severely compromised.”

Asked to what extent his party resembles Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc – PiS) in Poland, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, Zemaitaitis says: “There are a lot of myths about the two, and they are conjured by the left press that says ‘look, how bad and how anti-European they are’, when in fact – I am convinced – they care about their countries’ national identity much more than all the leftist governments in other EU member states.”

“If not for the Kaczynskis, Poland would have never been so strong militarily as it is now. To me, Orban’s party is a leader of domestic politics; on security issues, I side with the Kaczynskis, and on domestic politics and policies with Orban,” Zemaitaitis adds.

Zemaitaitis even dares to compare his party with Sajudis, Lithuania’s national movement of the late 1980s and early 1990s that led to the restoration of Lithuanian statehood in 1990.

“Such a comparison is fair and objective, as The Dawn of the River Neman was envisioned from scratch as an all-engaging national movement, which Sajudis certainly was,  one restoring trust in state, justice and all the freedoms we’ve fought hard for,” Zemaitaitis told bne IntelliNews.

His programme is policy-light – he says Lithuania has seen too much disruptive reform recently – but includes populist domestic measures similar to those carried out by both Law and Justice and Fidesz. On tax policy, his party commits to give personal income tax allowances to families raising three or more children, and peg the non-taxable amount of income (NPD) with the minimum monthly salary.

The party will also seek to halt green policies, which, it says, by increasing social exclusion, harm the development of agriculture and rural areas.

The Dawn of the River Neman will also publish lists of all persons who cooperated with the KGB during Lithuania’s four decades as part of the Soviet Union (the lists will be made public only in 2080, according to current legislation).

Campaigning on the beach

Zemaitaitis has benefited from the unpopularity of the ruling centre-right Homeland Union, which has sunk to around 9% in opinion polls, down from 26% from the 2020 elections, and the failure of the opposition Social Democrats, with around 18%, to take advantage.

“Zemaitaitis would not be around, if the ruling Homeland Union and the entire ruling coalition have not had some major screw-ups, like the disastrous education and health reforms,” says Dumbliauskas.

He predicts that the party is on track to become a formidable challenger on the right side of the political spectrum. Unlike Estonia with its EKRE and Isamaa, Lithuania has not had a radical right-wing party until now. 

Raimundas Vaitiekus, councillor of the Silale district municipality, which is one of the home bases of Zemaitaitis’ party, says Zemaitaitis is “diligent, down-to-earth and easy to speak to. He is a people’s man, not one for meeting halls”.

Gintaras Tomkus, publisher of the daily Vakaru Ekspresas in Klaipeda, Lithuania’s third-largest city, cannot agree more: “People love him, because he loves people, and the affinity is mutual, natural. He speaks straight, bluntly and says much more than other politicians allow themselves to say.”

At the beginning of this summer, Zemaitaitis was the first among the  party leaders to kick off the election campaign and did it in a most unlikely place – on the beach of Palanga, a resort on the Baltic coast, where he set up his make-shift office on portable inflatable lazy beach couches, beckoning sunbathers to stop by and say hello. Afterwards he set out to criss-cross the country, swinging by little settlements and villages that are often forgotten by politicians.

“No doubt, many people yearn for a new fresh wind...Zemaitaitis is dangerous to the system and its pecking order, hence the attacks on him. But the more they attack him, the more people like him and his ideas,” Tomkus says.

The strongest attacks on him have been over his alleged anti-semitism, where he has made remarks that appear to be appealing to the still strong latent anti-semitism in the country. Over 150 public Lithuanian figures have signed an appeal to President Gitanas Nauseda, urging him to reject politicians who have broken their oaths of office by making anti-semitic statements, a move that seems targeted at Zemaitaitis.

In June 2023 Zemaitaitis made Facebook posts claiming that "the Jews and Russians" oppressed ethnic Lithuanians during World War II and were responsible for the 1944 massacre in the village of Pirciupiai, an atrocity that was, in fact, carried out by German SS forces.

Earlier in May 2023, Zemaitaitis shared a news story about the demolition of a Palestinian school by Israel in the occupied West Bank, commenting that such actions “fuel anger and hatred towards Jews and their nation”, following it with an anti-semitic rhyme that ends with “take a little stick, children, and kill that jew”.

But Zemaitaitis shrugs off the accusations: “Thank God, my opponents did not accuse me of molesting children, which haunts the ruling Homeland Union. If someone in Lithuania calls you an anti-semite, it means you’re so transparent and spotless wherever they look. That is the only thing they can concoct in and attempt to smear me.”

“The still powerful clan of former KGB  members and their accomplices, as well as the neo-liberals besmear us, not the people everywhere,” says Zemaitaitis.