Putin says Kursk incursion makes peace talks less likely

Putin says Kursk incursion makes peace talks less likely
Kyiv claims it now controls 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory, but even the Russian authorities admit that they have lost control of at least 480 sq km, up from the initially reported 350 sq km. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews August 13, 2024

President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine has invaded Kursk to destabilise Russia and improve its position in ceasefire talks, but the assault makes peace talks less likely to happen.

Putin made the remarks in a televised meeting with top security officials on August 12 to address the ongoing cross-border offensive by Ukrainian forces into Russia's Kursk region, which has now entered its seventh day. The incursion, which has seen Ukrainian troops seize control of 28 settlements within Russian territory, has prompted an angry response from the Kremlin.

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and claimed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) now control 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory, up from the initial reports that the Ukrainian forces had taken 350 sq km. Separate reports say that AFU troops have also been seen in the neighbouring Belgorod region to the north of the Kursk region.

"We continue our offensive operation on the territory of Kursk region. Currently, around 1,000 square kilometres of Russia's territory is under our control. The groups of forces are fulfilling their tasks. Hostilities are in fact conducted along the entire front line. The situation is under our control," Syrskyi said during meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff Headquarters on August 12.

It is unclear how many troops Ukraine has committed to the Battle for Kursk, but several reports put the number at “thousands”, including several of Ukraine’s best fighting units.

Putin, joined by key figures including Defence Minister Andrey Belousov, Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu and Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov, discussed the implications of the Ukrainian advance.

The Russian president argued that the offensive was launched by Kyiv to improve its negotiating position in a mooted second peace summit slated to happen in November, and hinder Russia's progress in Ukraine. As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine may be inching towards a ceasefire and Putin has been signalling that Russia is ready for talks, though it is debatable how serious it really is. Putin had already offered a ceasefire on the eve of the failed Swiss peace summit held on June 16-17, but he has insisted any talks take account of “realities on the ground”, implying that Russia is not prepared to give up any of the territory it has annexed or occupied.

Now Putin claimed that the incursion has had the opposite effect, making peace talks less likely and accelerating Russia's battlefield gains.

"The main task at the moment is to drive out and beat back the enemy from our territories and ensure reliable border protection," Putin said. He stressed the importance of continuing the "counterterrorism operation" led by the FSB and the Russian National Guard, aimed at bolstering security in the affected regions.

The shock attack has caused chaos in the regions that border Ukraine. Over the weekend the authorities issued a mandatory evacuation order for 76,000 civilians and the Kremlin has offered compensation for those that go. However, reports on August 12 suggest that over 130,000 civilians have now fled the area, with many living in tent cities in neighbouring regions.

Putin also accused Ukraine and its Western allies of attempting to disrupt Russian society and undermine its unity. "Another one of the enemy’s goals is to sow discord and division in our society, to intimidate people and to destroy the unity of Russian society," he stated as cited by Meduza, adding that the incursion has instead strengthened public support for the Russian military and will help recruit more volunteers.

Acting Kursk Governor Alexey Smirnov provided a grim update on the situation in his region, describing it as "difficult." He reported that Ukrainian forces currently control 28 settlements in the Kursk region, having pushed 12 kilometres into Russian territory along a 40-kilometre front. If correct, the Russian estimate is that Ukraine now controls a total of 480 sq km, still considerably more than the initially reported 350 sq km.

Smirnov noted that at least 12 civilians have been killed and 121 injured since the operation began, with around 2,000 civilians currently missing in areas controlled by Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian OSINT service DeepState, working with Ukraine's Defence Ministry, reported that Ukrainian forces control approximately 44 settlements in the Kursk region.

A major clash could begin in the coming days after Russia has begun transferring at least a half dozen units from the frontlines in Donbas to Kursk, who are beginning to arrive now. Once the civilian population has been evacuated, an intense bombing campaign of Ukrainian position is likely to begin. To counter this Ukraine has deployed swarms of drones and is effectively jamming Russian missiles and drones with updated electronic warfare counter measures.

Zelenskiy has continued to call on his Western allies for permission to use Nato-supplied weapons to strike targets deeper in Russia. US National Security Advisor of Jake Sullivan said in comments on August 13 that the White House’s position on the issue had not changed and that permission was still being withheld for fear of escalation.

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