Romania’s industry keeps losing ground, posts 5.6% y/y decline in Q3
The industrial output in Romania (chart) further declined, by 0.9% q/q, in Q3 while the annual growth rate remained negative at 5.6% y/y, according to data published by the statistics office INS.
Data also shows that the industrial activity showed a certain improvement through the quarter and it was moderate in the core manufacturing sectors (-0.1% q/q) but this is far from altering the longer-term downward trend.
In the 12 months to September, the industrial output contracted by 4.9% y/y (-4.0% y/y for the manufacturing sector).
The automobile industry, however, stood out with a 6.3% y/y advance for the 12-month period. Metallurgy dragged down the overall performance with a 21% y/y contraction. Activity in the food industry was roughly flat at -0.2% y/y.
Romania’s government expects the industrial output to bottom out in 2024 at 0.8% y/y, and grow by 3.5-4% y/y per annum over the next three years with the value-added expected to perform slightly better.
Besides the automobile and car parts industries, the state forecasting body CNP expects the food, chemical, pharma, plastic and rubber industries to perform above average over the next years. Tobacco processing, light industries and metallurgy are seen as laggards.
Russia’s strong growth, driven by heavy military spending, has created growing inflationary pressure as the economy starts to overheat, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) says in its weekly update.
In the most recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), President Vladimir Putin's trust rating remained steady at 78.5%.
Ukraine’s leading investment bank Dragon Capital has cut its GDP forecast for Ukraine in 2024 in half to 4% y/y in anticipation of another year of war, The New Voice of Ukraine reported on December 7.
Czech industrial production increased by 1.9% year on year and by 2.8% month on month in October. The October increase follows a 5% slump registered in September, which alarmed local analysts.
Since 2018, economy has carried risk of severe balance of payments crisis. For the removal of that risk, the central bank’s net in and off-balance sheet FX position should at least turn positive.
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