Ultranationalist candidate Calin Georgescu has strengthened his position in Romania's political landscape, with just four months remaining until the rescheduled presidential elections.

On January 12, tens of thousands of people gathered in Bucharest to protest the Constitutional Court’s decision to cancel the December presidential election. Although not declared as such, the protest was in support of Georgescu and his presidential candidacy. Georgescu led in the first round, but the election was cancelled shortly before the runoff, amid concerns over potential Russian influence. 

The protest, amplified by leading TV stations Realitatea Plus and Romania TV, criticised the lack of evidence of alleged Russian interference or electoral fraud. 

Demonstrators also called for President Klaus Iohannis to step down, arguing that extending his term violated constitutional provisions that only allow for such measures during a state of emergency.

Georgescu, who appeals to voters disillusioned with traditional parties, remains a polarising figure. While he has moderated his previously overt pro-Russian rhetoric, he continues to oppose Nato and the market economy.

Domestic causes and external influences

Romania’s political crisis stems largely from internal dysfunction, even though the Supreme Defence Council has subtly pointed to foreign influences, including Russia and China (through TikTok), as being behind the rise of nationalism. 

Investigations, such as those by BG Elves, have uncovered sustained disinformation campaigns tied to Russian financing. However, no direct funding of nationalist candidates has been confirmed. Instead, scenarios related to the involvement of local intelligence services are gaining traction as they seem more plausible: ultranationalism was one of the themes capitalised on by the communist regime, where many of the influential figures in the services have their roots. 

The Constitutional Court’s controversial ruling is widely seen as politically motivated, benefiting the ruling coalition after the leaders of both the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL) failed to reach the second round of the presidential election. 

There is speculation that the court acted on instructions from the ruling parties, which appointed its members. Amid infighting between the two ruling parties, the PSD is alleged to have allegedly encouraged AUR candidate George Simion, while the PNL reportedly supported Georgescu as a counterweight to Simion. The result was a fractured electorate, with nationalist candidates pulling support away from both mainstream parties. The cancellation of the elections, backed by Iohannis and the Supreme Defence Council, is seen as a strategic delay to buy time for the coalition to recover.

While the court’s decision is final, historical precedent suggests it could backfire. In 2019, neighbouring Moldova’s Constitutional Court faced public backlash and resigned after its rulings appeared to favour oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. 

Failures of traditional parties 

The surge in nationalist sentiment is primarily a result of the failures of traditional parties. 

Distrust in Romania’s two ruling parties, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), combined with the weak democratic opposition, has left a significant portion of the electorate vulnerable to populist messages championed by parties like the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and Georgescu.

The PSD and PNL have alienated large sections of their voter base by prioritising narrow interest groups. The PSD caters to public-sector employees, particularly in administration, while the PNL aligns with businessmen seeking public contracts. This alliance, forged under Iohannis in 2021, came at a cost: the support of low-income private-sector workers, entrepreneurs and the diaspora. Even pensioners, long a reliable PSD base, have been disillusioned, with social spending increases failing to ensure a decent standard of living.

Diaspora voters, in particular, feel betrayed after years of hard work abroad. Their frustrations have made them receptive to nationalist rhetoric promising a better future.

Nationalist messaging, once marginal, has gained mainstream traction. PSD's "economic nationalism" agenda is now echoed by other would-be presidential contenders, including former PSD leader Victor Ponta and independent candidate Daniel Funeriu, who describe themselves as “sovereignists”.