"It is a fact that Russia cannot be defeated in the military sense," Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on September 17, arguing that peace plans pushed by China and Brazil should be supported.

"A further escalation of war will lead to irreparable consequences for the whole of humanity and above all for the countries involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Tokayev added. He made the comments as Scholz continued his first visit to Central Asia as Germany’s leader, meeting Tokayev in the Kazakh capital Astana, having arrived from the first leg of his trip in Uzbekistan.

Scholz offered no encouragement that the Brazil-China peace effort—which envisages Russia holding on to some of its captured Ukrainian territory—should be considered, instead saying Berlin was providing support to Kyiv because it was Russia that had launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in an unprovoked attack in February 2022.

"That is the case and will remain so, so that the country can defend itself and protect its integrity and sovereignty," said Scholz, adding that Russia was "continuing to attack Ukraine with great aggression."

"And that is why this is something that must never be ignored in everything we discuss. It is Russia that has not only started the war but is continuing it and could contribute to ending it at any time by stopping its aggression," he added.

Tokayev has steered a careful course since the Russian invasion, making it clear to Moscow Kazakhstan does not recognise Ukrainian lands Russia has annexed as Russian, while preserving its status as a strategic ex-Soviet ally of Russia that is prepared to stay on good terms with all the major powers under its “multi-vector” foreign policy.

"Since the war in Ukraine began, Central Asia has had a chance to reinvent itself in a comfortable geopolitical space," Luca Anceschi, a lecturer at the University of Glasgow, lately told RFE/RL.

"They are trying to say that they are not on Russia's side in Ukraine, like Belarus is, but they are not with Ukraine, either. They have ties with the West, but are not pro-Western," Anceschi said.

Trade relations between Kazakhstan and Germany during the two and a half years of the Ukraine war and international sanctions on the Kremlin in response to its aggression have included the development of a crude oil agreement, under which oil from Kazakhstan last year began flowing to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Russia, Belarus and Poland.

Tokayev said the Scholz visit would help lift Kazakh-German relations to a "new level."

"Our bilateral cooperation will be expanded in the spirit of a strategic partnership," he said.

Scholz said Berlin is interested in expanding trade with Kazakhstan, but would ensure that any trade expansion was not used to circumvent EU sanctions on Russia.

"I am grateful for the trusting dialogue between us, through which we want to prevent trade between us from being misused to circumvent sanctions," he stated.

Kazakhstan says it abides by international sanctions on Russia, but the evidence that Moscow substantially relies on trade operations in the country for “re-exports” that help keep its economy on track and equip its military machine is overwhelming.

Scholz and Tokayev said their countries were interested in boosting trade in oil, rare earths, lithium and other raw materials.

"Both sides benefit from this exchange because it allows us to diversify our economies and make them more resilient," Scholz said. "A very concrete example of this is the oil supplies from Kazakhstan, which helped us a lot after Russia failed as a supplier."