Majority state-owned Russian company Gazprom discontinued its gas supplies to Moldova at 7:00am local time on January 1, saying that Moldovagaz, in which the Russian company holds a majority stake, “constantly failed to pay the bills, which is a significant breach of the contractual terms”.

Gazprom discontinued its supplies to Moldova, including the pro-Russian, separatist Transnistria region, concomitantly with the closure of the transit route through Ukraine, enforced by the authorities in Kyiv as of January 2025. However, the Russian company cited Moldovagaz’ payment discipline and not technical obstacles, when announcing its decision. 

Most likely, the “constant failure to pay the bills” concerns the $800mn historic debts claimed by Gazprom but not recognised by the Moldovan authorities — unless Gazprom changed its policy and expects Transnistria to pay its outstanding gas bills that have already topped $10bn. Moldovagaz’s end users in the region controlled by the Moldovan constitutional authorities (Moldova proper) have not used one molecule of Russian gas in the past two years.

A notification was sent in advance of the cut-off of gas supplies, on December 28, as confirmed by both Prime Minister of Moldova Dorin Recean and Moldovagaz CEO Vadim Ceban. 

The loss of gas supplies to Transnistria, which supplies the whole country with electricity generated using Russian gas, didn’t come as a surprise, given that Ukraine was known to be closing the route for Russian gas and no alternative arrangements had been prepared for Moldova. 

Moldova already enforced a 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector as of December 16, to allow authorities to take steps and accommodate the gas shortage.

Political move 

In response to Gazprom’s notification, Recean accused Russia of keeping the residents of Transnistria, the region worst hit by the measure, hostages without heat and light. 

Russia is using energy as a political weapon, turning the people of the Transnistrian region, which it controls through the illegally stationed army, into hostages, Recean said. 

Gazprom’s decision may seem unexpected after the company has delivered gas to Transnistria for years without expecting payment – but it may be linked to the moderate attitude of the separatist authorities in Tiraspol, which have so far avoided conflicts with the central authorities in Chisinau. Indeed, on December 28, while Russian gas was still flowing through Ukraine, Transnistria had already cut the gas supplies to some public institutions on the territory controlled by central authorities in the Security Zone, controlled by both sides but supplied by Tiraspoltransgaz. 

For the rest of Moldova, the new energy shock will result in higher energy prices, likely to create a public sentiment conducive to anti-government narratives ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2025.

Gazprom’s gesture thus has a marked political dimension. There is speculation that Moscow expects Gazprom’s move to cause frustration in Transnistria, as well as among the population of the rest of Moldova, thus weakening the position of the ruling pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) ahead of the parliamentary elections this year.

Prior statements from officials in Moscow show expectations of increased tensions between Chisinau and Tiraspol and among the broader population of Moldova following the imminent energy crisis (higher prices, blackouts), a conflictual situation that may justify its direct intervention.

“No one should have any doubts that Russia will adequately respond to any provocation and ensure the protection of its citizens in Transnistria, the peacekeeping contingent, the servicemen of the Operational Group of Russian Forces and the military depots in the village of Cobasna,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on December 18. 

She heralded Gazprom’s decision by saying that Moldova “should pay for what it consumes”. Speaking of the higher prices paid by Moldova for non-Russian gas, she backed narratives likely to create frustration among low-income households in Moldova ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2025.

Moldova is an EU candidate country and inked in its constitution European integration and EU membership as strategic targets after a close referendum in 2024 marked by massive involvement of Russian institutions. Pro-EU President Maia Sandu also secured another term in the autumn, but her PAS will have a tough job preserving its majority position or finding allies for a pro-EU ruling coalition in the parliamentary elections in 2025.

A week before Gazprom’s notification, in response to Zakharova’s statements, Sandu reiterated the need to demilitarise Transnistria as a precondition for the country’s reintegration. 

The energy crisis will not accelerate the integration of Transnistria with the rest of the country, she said in response to a journalist’s question, adding that reintegration will only be possible once the Russian army leaves the territory of Moldova.

Preparations underway

Gazprom already cut its supplies in 2022 to half the amounts set out in the five-year contract signed between Moldovagaz and Gazprom in November 2021.

Before January 1, Gazprom was delivering 5.7mn cubic metres of gas per day or 2bn cubic metres (bcm) per year to Moldova, which was fully transferred to Transnistria, which hosts the country's MoldGRES power plant. 

An important part of the gas was used to produce the electricity consumed in the entire country – including the territory controlled by the central authorities, which can produce less than 10% of its electricity needs.

The central authorities have been preparing  for the shock, which is expected to have a significant economic impact.

Moldova will handle the situation, will protect all its vulnerable citizens and will sue Gazprom asking for compensation in international arbitration courts for its failure to observe the contractual terms, Recean assured citizens. 

However, handling the situation will not fully exclude blackouts and will have major economic consequences including higher inflation and subdued industrial activity amid a marked economic slowdown.

As an indirect effect of the gas supply termination, the region controlled by the central authorities will have to reduce its electricity consumption and pay higher prices. It will have to switch from the cheap power provided by MoldGRES in Transnistria to the scarcer and more expensive supplies from Romania. 

The central authorities have prepared a contingency plan including contracts with Romanian power suppliers Nuclearelectrica, and OMV Petrom (100 MW + 100 MW) to cover just over 25% of the 770 MW peak electricity consumption. They are ready to purchase another 25% from Romania’s market. On top of that, Moldova can produce up to 25% (200 MW) in fossil-fueled power plants and expects up to 25% from renewable sources (which are still intermittent, posing risks). The Moldovan authorities instructed companies and the population to reduce their power consumption by up to 60 MW during the peak hours, including by shifting industrial activity where possible during non-peak hours (during the night). The limited capacity of the interconnectors with Romania will be increased from 315 MW (the standard interconnector) by up to 100 MW using lower-voltage 110 kV lines. 

Moldovagaz announced that it already purchased 747.9mn cubic metres (7.95 TWh) of natural gas mostly from the Romanian Commodities Exchange East during August-December 2024, thus covering the entire natural gas demand for the winter period until the end of March 2025. However, the end-users in Moldova proper will have to reduce power consumption by up to 60MW during peak hours to prevent blackouts.

Transnistria worst hit

The entire country will feel the impact of the energy shock, but Gazprom’s decision particularly hits Transnistria, which (unlike the rest of the country) has not switched to non-Russian gas and, energy-wise, has developed a toxic dependence on the free gas supplied by Gazprom.

The power restrictions will be tougher in Transnistria. The natural gas still in the pipelines will be delivered only to apartment blocks and to social institutions (hospitals, public canteens), and is enough for 7-20 days depending on the region. 

Technically, using the reserve gas on the pipeline is dangerous as the air/oxygen mixing with the natural gas may cause explosions. MoldGRES will stop delivering heating and hot water to the population and will use only one coal-fired unit. It expects to have coal reserves for 50 days. However, the electricity consumption depends on the weather and the population will tend to substitute natural gas with electricity, thus reducing the expected duration of the stock of reserves.

The central authorities in Chisinau are considering providing humanitarian support to the population in Transnistria.