Russia’s spy chief, Sergei Naryshkin, said that Russia is “close to achieving all its war goals and holds the "strategic initiative in all areas of the war."

His comments after more than 1,000 days of conflict, the Ukrainian defence appears to be close to collapse and Ukraine’s Western partners are actively seeking a way to bring the war to a negotiated end.

As the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Naryshkin is one of the few senior Russian officials that maintains contacts with governments in the West and his comments are likely a signal that the Kremlin is ready to begin talks on some sort of ceasefire.

"The situation on the front is not in Kyiv's favour," Naryshkin told Razvedchik, the official publication of Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, reported Reuters. "The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals, while the armed forces of Ukraine are on the verge of collapse."

After almost two years of stalemate, the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) have gained more territory in just the last month than at any time since the start of the conflict in 2022.

The Kremlin has significantly increased its offensive and poured men and resources into the offensive in an effort to break the defences of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Russia increased the intensity of its air strikes on Ukraine by 300% this autumn, launching more than 6,000 drones and missiles into Ukraine, 200% more than in the previous three months and 300% more than in the autumn of 2023. Over the past six months, an average of 1,343 munitions were launched daily, compared with 622 in the previous six months.

However, the AFU has continued its heroic resistance, which has been made a little easier by a surge in supplies from the outgoing Biden administration accelerating supplies to lock in aid before President-elect Donald Trump takes over in January.

In addition, the long-promised EU supply of 1mn artillery shells has finally been delivered, nine months late, giving the AFU parity in artillery fire for the first time since the start of the war.

In October, 93% of Russia’s drones and slightly more than 8% of ballistic and hypersonic missiles were intercepted, Reuters reports. In November, the missile interception rate increased sharply – to more than 40%. Also, 92% of all long-range munitions launched in the past three months were drones and false targets – cheap decoys meant to exhaust Ukrainian air defences, Reuters reports.

Russia has responded by increasing the use of its devastating glide bombs – Soviet-era gravity bombs jury-rigged with wings and a simple GPS navigation system.

The Ukrainian president said that in the first week of December, the Russian Federation used almost 500 guided bombs, over 400 attack drones and nearly 20 missiles of various types against Ukraine.

The AFR is within a few kilometres of taking the strategically important town of Pokrovsk, the main logistical hub of the AFU in the Donbas. The AFU has also lost more than 40% of the territory it gained in the Kursk region during August’s incursion, said Reuters on November 22, quoting a senior Ukrainian military source.

Kyiv remains plagued with a worsening shortage of men, money and materiel. In particular, the number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting their position has soared as winter starts to close in, and Ukraine’s recruitment programme has failed to raise sufficient fresh troops to relieve those fighting on the front lines.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that since the Russian invasion began 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and another 370,000 wounded. Independent assessments put the numbers even higher: The Economist recently assessed Ukraine losses at 60,000 to 100,000 dead with about 400,000 more soldiers wounded. Russian losses are believed to be higher, with reportedly 1,500 soldiers killed per day during the recent offensives.

A grinding war of attrition continues but Russia is making progress thanks to its sheer weight of numbers and resources it can bring to bear in the conflict.

Legitimacy and negotiations

Naryshkin dismissed Zelenskiy as lacking both "legitimacy" and "the ability to negotiate." While the Kremlin has been signalling all summer that it wants to end the war as Russia’s economy starts to come under real pressure, it is not clear with whom it is willing to talk.

Zelenskiy’s term officially expired in May, but the constitution bars elections while martial law is in effect; however, the Kremlin argues that the speaker of parliament should have taken over. Moreover, the Rada passed a law banning Zelenskiy from negotiating directly with Putin.

Peace deals

There are multiple proposals being discussed but Trump himself has said little concrete on the issue other than he intends to end the war “in 24 hours” once he takes office on January 20.

For his part, the main plank of Zelenskiy’s proposed victory plan revolves around an accelerated accession to Nato – something nearly all his Western partners have rejected out of hand.

Technically, the accession of the unoccupied part of Ukraine to Nato is possible and there is a precedent, following the examples of Germany before its unification, when only Western Germany joined, but the treaty didn’t cover East Germany. Likewise, certain islands co-owned by France and the UK are not covered by the Alliance. However, it seems there is little political will to seek a partial accession of Ukraine to Nato, which most regard as being beyond the pale for Moscow. Germany in particular is afraid that the risk of being drawn into a direct military conflict with Russia following a renewed attack on Ukraine would be unacceptably high.

In a new development, at the weekend, Zelenskiy floated the idea of deploying foreign troops to Ukraine as a temporary security measure until the country can join Nato. The UK and France said they are open to the idea, but Berlin has rejected the proposal as too risky.

Three main proposals for ending Russia's war against Ukraine have been put in front of Trump by his aids, none of which involve Ukraine joining Nato: a plan by Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia General Keith Kellogg, a plan by US Vice President-elect JD Vance and a plan by former acting Trump intelligence chief Richard Grenell:

·        Kellogg's plan involves freezing current battle lines and increasing US military aid in exchange for Kyiv's agreement to peace talks. Moscow would be warned that aid to Ukraine would be stepped up if Russia refuses to negotiate. Ukraine will also be offered security guarantees from the US in the form of arms supplies.

·        Vance's plan envisages a deal between Ukraine and Russia that includes a demilitarised zone along the current front lines that will be "heavily fortified" to prevent further Russian incursions.

·        Grenell advocates the creation of "autonomous zones" in Eastern Ukraine.

Putin has said repeatedly that talks can begin but they should be in the framework of the failed Istanbul peace deal agreed in April 2022, plus they should take into account the “realities on the ground.” However, more recently, in what appears to be a trial balloon, leaked comments from the Kremlin suggest there is some room for negotiation over the borders of the four regions annexed by Russia last year and “limited territorial concessions.”

Contact group and defence fund

The war is widely seen to be in its end game and Ukraine’s western partners are actively trying to prepare the ground to put Zelenskiy in as strong a negotiating position as possible ahead of the inevitable talks.

Germany, France, the UK and Poland have offered to create a contact group to end the war during meetings with Zelenskiy in France on December 9. In particular, the head of the German opposition, Friedrich Merz, and very likely Germany’s new chancellor after elections due in the New Year, has come out in strong support of Ukraine. Merz has backed the creation of the contact group to formulate European stance on ending war and noted that in the coming "weeks and months," there should be no separate peace initiatives from individual European countries, but rather a unified, pan-European approach.

"It's not just about the European Union. I propose creating a Contact Group consisting of Germany, France, Poland and the United Kingdom – four major European and Nato countries – so that they could exchange views on ending the war against Ukraine and work to develop a common vision in cooperation with the United States. I believe we should discuss how you perceive such an idea," Merz said.

Merz said during a visit to Kyiv at the weekend that he may reverse current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to send Ukraine Germany’s powerful Taurus missiles, and that Europe should beef up Ukraine’s defence industry so it can better defend itself. Merz has also said that Ukraine needs strong “security guarantees”, but remained vague on if those would include a commitment to come to Ukraine military aid should it be attacked again.

In a similar vein, Europe is rushing to create a €500bn defence fund as Trump nears his return to the White House. EU countries are discussing the joint fund that will be used to re-arm European countries, which have depleted their stocks through supplying Ukraine. US President-elect Trump’s threat to scrap security guarantees for Nato allies that underspend on defence and support for Ukraine has prompted European capitals to explore more radical options for defence funding.

Senior European officials are also discussing plans for creating a defence financing mechanism that would issue bonds backed by national guarantees from member states rather than the EU as a whole. A funding model that would be open to non-EU countries such as the UK and Norway is gaining traction among a core group of EU states. The fund could support joint defence projects such as a shared air defence system. Brussels hopes funding joint arms purchases will encourage defence contractors to invest long-term. The Netherlands, Finland and Denmark generally support the idea. Germany's position is still being determined and will depend on the federal elections in February.

New Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said in comments over the weekend that the mandatory 2% of GDP spending on defence for Nato members was “not enough” and suggested the members increase the level.

The EU has also said it is ready to fill in for the US if it withdraws from its $50bn G7 loan agreement. The deal, agreed in July, has yet to be applied due to wrangling over which countries supply how much. The US in particular has been reluctant to commit to the $20bn allotment, unhappy over the EU’s instance that the agreement to fund the loan repayments using profits from investments of Russia’s $300bn frozen central bank reserves be reviewed every six months. Washington wants the period between reviews to be several years.

A decision is unlikely to be made until the New Year. US Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson has just refused a Biden administration's request for the inclusion of a fresh $24bn aid package for Ukraine in a Congressional spending bill. Johnson wants to wait for Trump's decision on this issue.

An EU summit, the first under Portugal’s Antonio Costa's European Council presidency, who took over from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on December 1, will be held on December 19. "The situation in Ukraine will be at the centre of our discussions. We must stay with Ukraine for as long as necessary and do everything possible to ensure that the Russian invasion is defeated and international law prevails," Costa said.

According to him, this meeting is a significant opportunity to send a single, unambiguous signal of support for Ukraine and to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace. "I invited President Zelenskiy to come to Brussels on the occasion of the European Council meeting to share with us the latest developments on the ground and his views on how Europe can best support Ukraine," Costa said.