Russia's saw another month of declining car sales in November, as units sold (excluding Mercedes-Benz and BMW) were down 20.4% year on year at 125,466 units, according to the latest report published by AEB on December 6.
“The reason for this decline remained broadly unchanged, with the microchip shortage continuing to weigh on the supply side, coupled with the relatively high base effect of November 2020. We note that, due to the strong 1H21, 11M21 sales were still 6.9% higher than in 11M20, at 1.4mn units. Assuming that the rate of decline remains broadly unchanged in December, we believe that the FY21F sales of new cars and LCVs will increase 4% y/y to 1.67mn units,” VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note.
Soller's UAZ brand sales underperformed the overall market trend, showing a decline of 25% y/y in November to 3,070 units, while its 11M21 sales decreased 2% y/y.
In contrast, Ford Transit sales (produced by the JV with Ford, is consolidated by Sollers) massively outperformed the market, increasing 74% y/y to 2,123 units in November. Its 11M21 sales were up 52% y/y at 17,739 vehicles.
“We remain neutral on Sollers (Hold; 12-mo TP RUB250; ETR 19%) due to the bleak prospects for its UAZ brand, as well as the uncertainties over the company's strategy towards minority shareholders,” VTBC said.
The AvtoVAZ/Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi alliance remains the leader on the market, despite its market share declining 1.8pp y/y, from 38.5% in November 2020 to 36.7% in November 2021. Its 11M21 market share was 35.6%, compared with 38.6% in 11M20.
AvtoVAZ's Lada brand sales saw the fourth consecutive month of decline, down 31% y/y to 26,373 units in November 2021. For 11M21, however, the brand's performance was almost in line with the market, increasing 6% y/y to 320,795 units.
Among other Russian car manufacturers, VTBC noted that GAZ's LCV sales were down 2% y/y at 5,428 units in November, while its 11M21 sales increased 18.4% y/y to 50,111 units.