Recent studies indicate that 15% to 45% of Russian emigrants have returned to Russia reversing the brain drain that began following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

There have been two large waves of emigration. The first occurred immediately following the invasion in February 2022 as conscientious objects left the country due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked aggression.

The second wave occurred after the Kremlin announced a partial mobilisation in September 2022 to shore up the faltering military campaign that saw Russia’s army routed in the Kharkiv offensive, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) retook hundreds of square kilometres of territory from the Russian forces. Men of military service age fled the country to avoid conscription, although most of those press ganged into the military came from Russia’s poorest regions according to a study of banking deposits dynamics.

Up to one million Russian citizens have left the country since the war started. A substantial portion of those who left are highly educated, urbanised, and mobile, representing valuable long-term human capital for host communities, academics Emil Kamalov and Ivetta Sergeeva wrote in a recent paper for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

A large number of IT professionals are amongst the emigres as their work is portable and they continue to earn salaries in exile. That has caused a headache for the Kremlin as these are amongst the most productive Russian citizens and difficult to replace.

“The return of these individuals to Russia suggests a significant shift in the migration patterns observed over the past two years,” Kamalov and Sergeeva conclude.

Western leaders were quick to comment on the trend, noting the potential benefits of the influx of skilled Russian migrants to their countries. However, the ongoing process of return migration may challenge these initial expectations, as Russia appears to be reclaiming its skilled workforce.

The emigrants are returning for a number of reasons. The fear of conscription has faded after the Kremlin’s campaign to replenish its manpower via a campaign to attract volunteers has been very successful and seen the army increase in size by some 15% since the start of the war – sufficient to cover the losses at the front. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out calling a general mobilisation of the population.

Finding work in other countries and a growing hostility towards the Russian emigres has been another factor. While the arrival of tens of thousands of Russians, who arrive with income and significant savings, proved to be an economic boon for countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia, as time passes these populations have failed to integrate into the local communities and have been met with rising resentment. While a Russian passport entitles Russians to enter many of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) visa-free and entitles them to work, some countries, like Kazakhstan, have limited the term of residency permits for political reasons, forcing emigrants to move on after a year.

Still, others have been drawn home thanks to the booming Russian economy. The general labour shortage is even worse in the IT and professional services sectors which has dramatically driven up wages and made finding a good job easy. The war has if anything improved the quality of life for the average Russia thanks to dramatically rising real wages, pulling more emigrants home again.

The inflow of returnees may be temporary, as many of these professionals remain unhappy with the Kremlin’s permanent break with the West, say the analysts.

“Returning is often a temporary option in order to regroup and gather the resources for a new attempt at emigration. According to data from the OutRush research project, of the 16% of respondents who returned to Russia between March 2022 and September 2022, around 80% had emigrated once again by summer 2023. For some, organising a new attempt to leave may take years, not months,” the analysts say.

But in the short-term while tensions remain high and Russia’s economy continues to flourish, emigres are expected to continue to arrive back in their Motherland.

“The return of emigrants is expected to continue, potentially easing the impacts of the 2022 exodus. The trend is being closely monitored, as it holds significant implications for both Russia and the countries that received the initial wave of migrants,” the academics write.