Russian consumer confidence crashed in 2Q20, business confidence starts to recover

Russian consumer confidence crashed in 2Q20, business confidence starts to recover
Russian consumer confidence crashed to a four-year low, while business confidence didn't fall as hard and started to recover after a May nadir
By bne IntelliNews July 28, 2020

Consumer confidence crashed in the second quarter of this year, while business confidence has started to recover after its nadir in May, according to the most recent Rosstat confidence surveys.

Consumer confidence index, which is measured quarterly, crashed to -30, its lowest level since the first quarter of 2016 during Russia’s “silent crisis” years.

Since then, consumer confidence has been recovering steadily, reaching a best value of -8 at the start of 2018. Consumer confidence is always set back in the winter months and took a knock in the winter of 2018, but continued to recover in 2019 to reach -11 in the first months of this year before the double whammy of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and oil price shock hit in March.

Business confidence has followed a similar pattern, but overall has been more stable than consumer confidence and didn't fall as hard in the silent crisis years, when it dropped to -8.

The impact of the coronacrisis has also taken a toll but business confidence, which is measured monthly, fell to a much more modest -9 in May of this year and has made a recovery to -5 as of June – still well below the seasonal recovery to -2 that businesses have been enjoying during most summers for the last few years.

 

 

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