A fleet of Russian warships entered Cuban waters on June 12, setting the stage for upcoming military exercises in the Caribbean amidst heightened international tensions linked to the war in Ukraine. The arrival, marked by a ceremonial passage through Havana Bay with a flagship frigate adorned in Russian and Cuban flags, was greeted with 21 cannon salutes and a display of military honour.

The Admiral Gorshkov frigate led the procession, followed by the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, partially submerged with its crew visible on deck. Accompanying them were a tugboat and a fuel ship that arrived earlier in the morning.

The warships' presence indicates Moscow's intent to assert strength in the region, amid escalating friction over increased Western support for Ukraine. The deployment, which includes a nuclear-powered submarine expected to follow, is seen as a strategic move by Russia to maintain influence in its long-standing allies, Cuba and Venezuela.

“The warships are a reminder to Washington that it is unpleasant when an adversary meddles in your near abroad," Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Programme at the Washington-based Wilson Center think tank, told The Associated Press. "It also reminds Russia's friends in the region, including US antagonists Cuba and Venezuela, that Moscow is on their side."

While US officials have confirmed the fleet's presence poses no immediate threat to the United States, it underscores Russia's capability to project power into the Western hemisphere. The timing of the deployment, coinciding with diplomatic talks between Russian and Cuban officials in Moscow, further underscores the Kremlin's diplomatic manoeuvrers in the face of mounting Western pressures.

The fleet's visit also raises questions about potential implications for Venezuela's upcoming elections, as President Maduro – a close Russia ally – faces domestic challenges and historically low popularity ratings. Analysts speculate the fleet's presence could be leveraged to influence regional dynamics, intervening in Venezuela's long-running border dispute with Guyana in a bid to shore up support for Maduro and delay electoral processes.

The historical significance of Russia-Cuba relations, especially stemming from the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, looms large. This standoff erupted when the Soviet Union responded to US missile deployments in Turkey by stationing ballistic missiles in Cuba, bringing the world to the brink of nuclear conflict.

The relationship between the two nations has strengthened in recent times. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel's frequent visits to Russia, including his attendance at a military parade in May, underscore the deepening ties.

In March, Russia delivered 90,000 metric tonnes of oil to Cuba to alleviate shortages, while pledging support in various sectors from sugar production to infrastructure and renewable energy. In return, Cuba has consistently supported Russia on the international stage after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Russian ships are scheduled to remain in Havana until June 17, gracing the port with their mighty presence amid tense geopolitical dynamics.