Russia’s weekly inflation remained at 0.1% week-on-week on the week of February 10, with the daily inflation slowing to 0.01% after an acceleration over the first few days in February, according to Rosstat statistics agency.
Inflation is back in focus as it trends at record-low and below the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) signalled further monetary stimulus as soon as 1H20, and the newly appointed government ramped up spending already in January 2020.
As of February 10 accumulated inflation was 0.2% since the beginning of the month and 0.6% since the beginning of the year, Sberbank CIB estimated on February 13.
“If it remains at that level until the end of the month, monthly inflation would be 0.3-0.4% depending on rounding. Taking into account that prices rose 0.4% m/m in February 2019, the y/y figure would likely remain at 2.4%,” the bank calculated.
Sberbank CIB expects inflation to hit the bottom for the year in 1Q20, after, which it should gradually start to pick up and reach 3% y/y by year-end, still below the CBR target of 4%.