The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan has published data on the number of Russian and Ukrainian citizens who have relocated to Azerbaijan since the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to the statistics, from March 2022 to July 2024, a total of 1,535,889 citizens from these two countries arrived in Azerbaijan. Between March and December 2022 alone, 397,005 Russians and 24,609 Ukrainians entered Azerbaijan.

A particularly sharp increase in the number of migrants from Russia was observed last year, when their number grew by more than 200,000, reaching 624,753 people. During the same period, 31,267 Ukrainian citizens also entered Azerbaijan. In the first seven months of 2024, an additional 438,066 Russian citizens and 20,189 Ukrainian citizens arrived in the country.

Migration from Russia and Ukraine began due to the war, but it has intensified in recent months due to the mobilizations announced in Ukraine and a second mobilisation that is now being threatened in Russia this autumn. In all some 4.5mn Ukrainians are believed to have fled the destruction from the war, with another 1mn Russia departing, although recent reports suggest half of those have since returned home, unable to find jobs abroad or attracted back by the flourishing economy.

Initially, the largest number of Ukrainian refugees headed to Georgia. As noted in the World Bank's report, "Europe and Central Asia Economic Update," released in the fall of 2022, by September 13 of that year, Georgia had received the highest number of Ukrainian refugees among the South Caucasus countries—26,031 people. Azerbaijan received 4,639 Ukrainians, while Armenia took in 489. Most Ukrainian refugees chose to relocate to Poland (1,379,470 people), Germany (1,003,029 people), and the Czech Republic (431,462 people). However, even this number of refugees placed a significant burden on the small countries of the South Caucasus.

It should be noted that exact data on the number of Ukrainian refugees in Azerbaijan are unavailable. According to 2022 data, the total number of migrants who arrived in the South Caucasus countries since the start of the war was 31,159 people, of whom 4,639 came to Azerbaijan. Over time, the flow of refugees began to decrease, and those who had already arrived started leaving the country. According to media reports from that period, the reason for this was the lack of government support for refugees. They were primarily cared for by embassies and public organisations, while no state-level mechanisms were established to assist Ukrainians fleeing the war. Many of them became disillusioned and started seeking opportunities to move to other countries, primarily in Europe. Despite closed land borders, an exception was made for Ukrainians wishing to leave—they were transported by bus to Turkey, from where they could continue their journey to European countries.

South Caucasus

Should Azerbaijan be blamed? Probably not. Azerbaijan itself has experienced a much more significant refugee and internally displaced persons crisis. About one mn people became refugees due to Armenian aggression, and for nearly three decades, they were fully supported by the Azerbaijani state. Only now is the country beginning to emerge from this crisis, which it had to solve independently, without external assistance. Azerbaijani refugees did not receive the same status in other countries and had to build their lives abroad on their own. Those who couldn’t do so returned home. They had no choice between Germany or another European country. Thus, Azerbaijan is well-acquainted with this problem, and even now, it has not been fully resolved.

As for Russian relocants, the countries that have received the most Russians since 2022 are those with visa-free regimes: Armenia (110,000 people), Kazakhstan (80,000), and Georgia (74,000). The USA also saw a significant influx, with about 48,000 Russians moving there, most of whom applied for asylum. Israel also became a popular destination for Russians, with about 80,000 people moving there under the repatriation program.

The Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) released a report in early May of this year titled "Russians in the South Caucasus: Political Attitudes and the War in Ukraine," based on a survey of two groups of Russians living in Armenia and Georgia. The study showed that at the very beginning of the war, most Russian relocation headed to Armenia; however, after the mobilisation was announced, the flow of migrants changed direction and shifted toward Georgia. It is likely that most of these relocants, who were conscription-age men, counted on the complicated relations between Tbilisi and Moscow, which would make deportation at Russia's request unlikely.

According to Armenian media, about 110,000 Russians relocated to Armenia in 2022. That same year, about 2,500 legal entities with Russian participation and 4,000 individual entrepreneurs were registered in Armenia. The additional influx of funds into the Armenian banking system from Russian clients amounted to $3bn, contributing to roughly a quarter of the country's total GDP growth.

Russians in no hurry to leave

Statistics from Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee indicate that, unlike Ukrainians, Russians are in no hurry to leave the country. The reason is that Russians are not welcomed in Europe. About 666,000 Russians who fled the war in Ukraine and mobilisation have not yet returned to Russia. This was revealed by a study conducted by The Bell, which collected data from the migration and statistical agencies of nearly 70 countries. Azerbaijan has become one of the countries where Russians feel comfortable. Understandably, they do not claim state status or assistance and try to arrange their lives independently. Judging by media and social media reports, Russian relocants in Azerbaijan feel quite comfortable, as Russian university diplomas are valued here, and the Russian language is not banned. Moreover, they do not face hostility from the local population.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict shows no signs of ending. On the contrary, it appears to be escalating, drawing in more resources and participants, and intensifying geopolitical tensions on a global scale. This ongoing conflict may result in further displacement of populations, driving more migrants to seek refuge in neighbouring regions like the South Caucasus. The already strained infrastructure and resources of these small countries may be further tested as they try to accommodate new waves of refugees and relocation. As the situation develops, it will be crucial for the international community to monitor the impact on the South Caucasus, offering support where necessary to help these countries manage the complex challenges posed by this influx of people seeking safety and stability in an increasingly uncertain world.