Uzbekistan: Shadow economy responsible for generating over one-third of GDP
29 minutes ago
S&P Global Ratings expects Azerbaijan’s banking sector to expand by 15% in 2025, citing the continued link between credit growth and oil prices.
From 2021 to 2024, bank lending grew by 18%, largely driven by a surge in consumer loans. The rating agency noted that Azerbaijan has one of the lowest private sector debt levels in the region, with household debt accounting for 14% of GDP and corporate debt standing at 10% of GDP. Starting March 1, 2025, the Central Bank will require an additional 0.5% countercyclical capital buffer, as the credit-to-GDP gap has exceeded 2%.
S&P also forecasts that inflation-adjusted housing prices in Azerbaijan will rise by 5-10% in 2025. In a broader economic assessment, the agency has upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Azerbaijan from 1.5% to 2%, while keeping its 2025 growth outlook at 2%. The revision comes after stronger-than-expected economic performance in the Caucasus and Central Asia region in 2024.
The agency highlighted that while oil exporters such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have benefited from recent oil price trends, both face declining oil production. However, non-oil sector growth in these economies is outpacing expansion in the oil and gas industry, providing a buffer against volatility in hydrocarbon revenues.
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Uzbekistan: Shadow economy responsible for generating over one-third of GDP
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