The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has projected that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.5% in 2025, Mirjana Miletic, deputy director general of the NBS research and statistics sector, said on February 19.

Miletic’s remarks came in response to questions from the press regarding the central bank’s relatively optimistic forecast, which surpasses projections from other institutions. While other forecasts such as those from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission (EC) are slightly more conservative, Serbia's central bank remains confident in its growth outlook for the coming year.

“When it comes to external factors, we considered the outlook in the Eurozone, which is somewhat weaker than before. We also factored in that no new tariffs will be introduced beyond those already announced, and that geopolitical tensions will not escalate further,” Miletic said.

On the domestic front, Miletic highlighted key drivers of economic growth, particularly in the automotive sector. “We expect positive effects from the opening of new capacities, primarily in the automotive industry, including the start of mass production of electric vehicles and the production of car tires at the Zrenjanin plant,” she added. Other contributors to growth include the operation of a new energy unit in Kostolac and improvements in Serbia’s hydropower potential.

In 2024, Serbia posted the highest growth rate in Europe (level with Malta), with real GDP growth estimated at 3.9%, according to the country’s official statistics office. This performance was supported by strong consumer spending, government investments related to preparations for Expo Belgrade 2027 and a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been a crucial driver of Serbia’s economic growth.

For 2025, the IMF has forecast a growth rate of 4.1%, while the European Commission predicts 4.2%. Both institutions emphasise solid domestic demand and government spending as key contributors to the country’s economic performance, alongside steady growth in manufacturing, construction and services.

Despite these positive conditions, potential risks remain. Serbia could face pressures from fluctuating energy and food prices, energy supply disruptions and geopolitical instability. An economic slowdown among the country’s key EU trading partners could also weigh on fiscal and external accounts. Ongoing student protests in Serbia and domestic political instability could also weigh on growth by deterring new foreign investment inflows.

Nevertheless, Serbia is well-positioned to weather these challenges. Strong external buffers, diversified FDI inflows and prudent fiscal and monetary policies underpinned by IMF arrangements will provide resilience. As bne IntelliNews argued in its 2025 Outlook for Southeast Europe, these factors should enable Serbia to mitigate weaknesses in the Eurozone and maintain its growth trajectory, ensuring strong economic growth in 2025.