The 46-year-old Islamic Republic of Iran faces mounting pressure to negotiate with Donald Trump's administration as a devastating domestic energy crisis grips the country. This economic squeeze, acknowledged by both citizens and government officials, has placed President Pezeshkian's administration in a difficult position. Insulted by Trump's brash approach to diplomacy, Tehran now finds itself forming unusual alliances with countries like Canada and Ukraine.

President Pezeshkian's situation has worsened considerably as Iran experiences natural gas deficits of between 260mn and 350mn cubic metres daily during one of its harshest winters. This shortage has forced the authorities to shut down more than a dozen power plants. Schools, universities, banks and government institutions now operate on reduced schedules, while periodic blackouts affect highways and commercial centres. In some regions, the combination of pollution and energy shortages has created so many impromptu holidays that schoolchildren's education has been severely disrupted, drawing comparisons with the disruptions of the Iran-Iraq war. The country's infrastructure, patched together for nearly fifty years with minimal investment and maintenance, is buckling under the weight of both domestic and international demands.

Pezeshkian, looking increasingly stressed as his young presidency progresses, has apologised to citizens and asked them to reduce their home temperatures by two degrees to conserve energy. These pleas have largely been ignored by a population accustomed to heavily subsidised energy. Despite the domestic crisis, he has publicly rebuffed the prospect of dealing with Donald Trump, stating that Tehran would not negotiate while being threatened. "It is unacceptable for us that they give orders and make threats. I won't even negotiate with you. Do whatever the hell you want," state media quoted Pezeshkian as saying on March 11.

The industrial sector has been hit particularly hard, with production declining 30-50%. This drop could potentially cost the economy tens of billions of dollars by winter's end. Meanwhile, the Iranian rial has reached historic lows, exceeding IRR900,000 against the US dollar for the first time. Iran's substantial oil exports to China now appear to be in the crosshairs of an aggressive White House, which may attempt to seize Iranian tankers off the coast of Singapore, where much of the oil is transferred between ships. Such a move could push Tehran into a corner, with unpredictable consequences.

Iran's domestic energy shortages couldn't come at a worse time for an economy already strained under international sanctions limiting access to technology and investment. The crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in the country's ageing infrastructure and resource allocation priorities. According to the Persian-language newspaper Hamshahri, Trump has consistently presented Iran with a binary choice: negotiate or face potential military action. Since returning to the presidency, he has positioned himself as determined to bring Iran to the negotiating table, a stance he maintained throughout his election campaign.

The American pressure campaign publicly focuses on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump recently claimed in a Fox Business interview that he had sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, attempting to distinguish between the Iranian government and its people. His comments included references to the possibility of Israel taking military action against Tehran's nuclear sites. These threats should be taken seriously, considering Israeli intelligence's deep knowledge of Iran's nuclear sector.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has indicated that US demands extend beyond nuclear issues to include restrictions on Iran's defensive capabilities, international relationships and missile programme – demands the Iranian leadership considers unacceptable. According to Hamshahri, Khamenei described the American approach not as negotiation but as dictation. His October 8 speech to officials was followed by meetings with veteran leaders of the Islamic Republic, all attempting to show a united front. However, as one person remarked to bnm IntelliNews, "all this jaw-jaw is not helping with the price of Nescafe on Mirzaye Shirazi Street," referring to an area historically populated by members of Tehran's Armenian community.

Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a potential mediator in the dispute, much to Iran's displeasure. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Iran's nuclear programme has become "a separate area" for Moscow-Washington dialogues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently visited Tehran, though Iranian officials reportedly maintained their position against negotiations under duress. As previous reporting has suggested, Tehran could become a bargaining chip between Washington and Moscow. Iranian leaders, despite current agreements with Russia, remain distrustful due to centuries of historical conflicts and territorial losses, particularly in the South Caucasus. The current leadership of the Islamic Republic is well aware that Putin could sacrifice their interests to achieve his objectives regarding Ukraine.

The Persian-language newspaper suggested that Iran's investments in regional initiatives, including support for the Assad regime in Syria and proxy forces throughout the Middle East, have diverted resources that could have been used for domestic infrastructure improvements. These geopolitical commitments have not yielded expected dividends, while the country's energy infrastructure has deteriorated.

The current situation bears similarities to conditions that preceded the 2019 nationwide protests, which erupted after the government attempted to reduce energy subsidies, leading to fuel price increases. Russian sources suggest this energy crisis, combined with new hijab laws and stricter penalties for women, has heightened social tensions.

For Iran's leadership, the calculation grows increasingly complex. As noted in Hamshahri, the Supreme Leader has stated that officials must increase their "speed of action" in economic matters and fulfil promises to the people – acknowledging the urgency of the situation.

However, the combination of Trump's psychological operations targeting Iranian public opinion and the tangible reality of energy shortages creates significant pressure on the leadership. While Iranian officials publicly reject negotiations under pressure, the deteriorating economic conditions continue to narrow their options as the crisis deepens – perhaps an illustration of Trump's negotiating tactics as described in "The Art of the Deal."