There was a tense atmosphere in Georgia on the evening of Saturday October 26 as both the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party and a united group of pro-Western opposition parties both declared victory in the country’s parliamentary elections amid conflicting exit poll data.

As of 20:00 local time, polling stations closed, with the Central Election Commission (CEC) saying that, with 70% of precincts counted, the official count showed GD had won 53% of the vote and the opposition 44.1%. Voter turnout was reported at 58.9% of 3.5mn registered voters.

However, the picture was complicated by the fact that, as soon as voting ended, an exit poll for pro-opposition TV channels gave GD just 40.9% of the vote, with the total for the combined four opposition groups given as 51.9%. On the other hand, a poll for the government-supporting Imedi TV channel gave GD as much as 56%.

In a speech to supporters in Tbilisi, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire honorary chair of GD, expressed pride in his party’s resilience, saying: “It is a rare occasion worldwide for the same party to keep being successful amid such difficult circumstances.”

Outlining his commitment to leading Georgia to a successful future in the coming years, he pledged that “there will be no lies, no treachery, no conniving”.

Opposition leaders representing the pro-European parties, were, though, quick to challenge the GD’s claim of victory.

Tina Bokuchava, leader of the Unity – National Movement (UN-M) coalition, declared that “despite the violence, Europe and the Georgian people won,” adding: “No particular party has won, but the European future of the country, and the opposition has won and the GD has lost. The time of Ivanishvili is over.”

Mamuka Khazaradze, leader of Strong Georgia, another pro-European coalition, echoed this sentiment, celebrating what he described as the “defeat of the Russian government in Georgia” and calling for election observers to safeguard the vote count.

Former prime minister Giorgi Gakharia, who leads the For Georgia party, cautioned against any premature celebrations, referring to a significant margin of error undermining exit polls. “Believe me, when the counting is over, our results, the results of the [other] opposition parties as well, will be much better than the exit polls,” he said.

With the full results of this watershed election set to unfold, the situation remains highly polarised. Both sides are rallying their supporters and vying for legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate and the international community.

If the GD prevails, the country’s hopes of achieving integration with the EU could be irrecoverably derailed. In campaigning ahead of the elections, the ruling party stepped up its message that only the GD could achieve a “pragmatic” Russia policy that could keep the country out of a conflict with Moscow.