Ford drives hike in car production in Romania
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Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4% y/y in 1Q23, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK or TurkStat) said on May 31.
The TUIK, as has become usual in recent years, is, according to its data series, on course to release full-year GDP growth of around 5%.
It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern at methodologies employed by the agency.
Turkey has so far led the global inflationary period. Now, it is leading the stagflation, or "slumpflation", period.
Liam Peach at Capital Economics said in a note: "Turkey’s economy shrugged off the impact of the earthquakes in February and grew by 0.3% q/q (4.0% y/y) in Q1. GDP growth is likely to remain soft in q/q terms this year, but a continuation of President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan’s policies will keep macro imbalances large and raise the risk of an altogether worse outcome."
| Main Macro Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Q1-22 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | 2022 | Q1-23 |
| GDP Growth (y/y, %) | 0.9 | 1.8 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| Electricity Consumption (y/y) | -0.6 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -1.0 | -5.3 |
| Employed (active, mn) | 26.7 | 24.1 | 27.0 | 27.9 | 29.7 | 28.5 | 30.5 | 29.3 | - |
| Population (mn) | 83.2 | 83.6 | 84.7 | - | - | - | - | 85.3 | - |
| GDP (per capita, $) | 9,127 | 8,599 | 9,539 | - | - | - | - | 10,655 | - |
| GDP (current, TRYbn) | 4,318 | 5,047 | 7,209 | 2,496 | 3,419 | 4,258 | 4,801 | 15,007 | 4,632 |
| GDP (current prices, $bn) | 760 | 717 | 803 | 180 | 219 | 242 | 263 | 906 | 245 |
| Inflation (y/y, %, eop) | 11.8 | 14.6 | 36.1 | 61.1 | 78.6 | 83.5 | 64.3 | 64.3 | 50.5 |
| Lira-loans (%, y/y) | 13.9 | 43.3 | 20.4 | 33.2 | 55.7 | 68.6 | 80.4 | 80.4 | 86.0 |
| Policy Rate (%, active, eop) | 11.4 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| CA Balance ($bn, Oct) | 1.67 | -35.5 | -14.9 | -19.2 | -13.3 | -9.3 | -10.8 | -48.8 | -23.6 |
| CA Balance/GDP (%) | 0.2 | -5.0 | -1.9 | -10.7 | -6.1 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -5.4 | -9.6 |
| Budget (TRYbn, Nov) | -124 | -173 | -192 | 30.8 | 62.8 | -139.1 | -93.6 | -139.1 | -250.0 |
| Budget Balance/GDP (%) | -2.9 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -3.3 | -1.9 | -0.9 | -5.4 |
| USD/TRY (eop) | 5.95 | 7.44 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 18.5 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 |
Table: Main macro indicators.
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