Turkey’s Oct industrial output data “ice in pants for those hoping for V-shape recovery” says economist

By bne IntelliNews December 13, 2019

Turkish industrial production rose for the second-straight month in October—but the pace of the recorded growth was significantly less than anticipated, weighing on expectations for a fast recovery from a year that’s included a bitter recession.

October output was up 3.8% y/y, following September’s 3.4% y/y expansion, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) said on December 13. The median forecast of a Reuters survey of economists earlier this week predicted 6.2%.

"Turkey's worse than expected industrial production release is unwelcome ice in the pants for those hoping for a V-shape recovery," said Erik Meyersson, senior economist at Swedish bank Handelsbanken, in comments posted on Twitter. "Yet more important than one month's release is that TR IP is struggling to reach pre-2016 trends."

Production of non-durable consumer goods moved up by an annual 4.9% in October, the TUIK said. Output of energy rose by 8.4% and that of intermediate goods by 4.2%. Manufacturing of durable consumer goods, on the other hand, was down 5.1%.

October industrial production fell by 0.9% m/m, the TUIK added.

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