Ukraine central bank forecasts nation's GDP growth in July-September at 3.5% y/y

Ukraine central bank forecasts nation's GDP growth in July-September at 3.5% y/y
The NBU has increased its growth forecasts for 3Q19 to 3.5% and also for full year, whereas the iMF is predicting 2.99%
By bne IntelliNews November 5, 2019

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates the nation's GDP growth at 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, according to the NBU's inflation report published last week.

According to the NBU's forecast, the growth of Ukraine's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be 3.3% y/y.

Ukraine’s real GDP rose 4.6% y/y in the second quarter of 2019, or 1.6% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat.

In October, the regulator revised its economic growth forecast upwards, to 3.5% y/y in 2019 and 2020 and 4% y/y in 2021.

"The revision was driven by the sustained domestic demand, higher productivity in agricultural production, and improved consumer sentiment. In the meantime, slower growth in the global economy and worsened terms of trade will weigh on economic growth in 2020," the statement reads.

The NBU added that slower growth in the global economy and worsened terms of trade will weigh on economic growth in 2020. The 2019–2021 current account deficit will remain "acceptable". Despite the stronger hryvnia, the current account deficit in 2019 will narrow to 2.9% of GDP, thanks to an improvement in the terms of trade and the rich grain harvest.
 

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