Ukraine is ready to send coal and experts to restore the activity of the MoldGRES power plant in Transnistria at a capacity of 2 GW — roughly twice as much as the whole of Moldova needs, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a joint press conference held in Kyiv with Moldovan President Maya Sandu on January 25.

Russia cut gas supplies to Moldova on January 1, citing a $709mn historic debt not recognised by Chisinau. This precipitated an energy and humanitarian crisis in the pro-Russian separatist Transnistria region, which relies on the gas for its own consumption as well as to produce electricity for the rest of Moldova. 

The solution provided by Ukraine to the energy crisis in Moldova would leave Russia without the means to pursue its political interests in Moldova, aimed at derailing the country from its route towards eventual EU membership. 

Transnistria recently played down Ukraine’s offer to provide coal, claiming it would be coking coal and not thermal coal (anthracite) needed by MoldGRES.

On January 25, Zelenskiy said that Ukraine would provide coal at an affordable price or even for free, in exchange for the excess electricity produced.

Meanwhile, the end-user price of electricity would drop by some 30% in Moldova, according to estimates voiced by Ukraine's president.

Zelenskyy also said the coal for MoldGRES would be the right type (anthracite) and added that coal sent to Transnistria so far was also Ukrainian coal stolen by Russia from the occupied territories.

The sticking point for the Transnistrian leadership is that opting to accept Ukraine’s support would annoy Moscow and defer indefinitely the separatists’ (unrealistic) hopes of becoming part of the Russian Federation.

Although this was not mentioned during the joint press conference, Sandu said earlier that long-term support for Transnistria, coming from Moldova’s development partners, would be conditioned on the Russian illegal GOTR troops and quasi-illegal peacekeepers leaving the territory of Moldova (the latter being replaced by neutral peacekeepers).

Russia’s decision to cut off gas deliveries to Transnistria encouraged the separatist authorities in Tiraspol to become more vocal against the pro-EU authorities in Chisinau. Left without free gas, Transnistria resumed propaganda against the pro-EU regime in Chisinau and sent military equipment for an unannounced drill in the Security Zone.

Tiraspol is still spreading propaganda against Chisinau blaming Sandu for not going to Moscow to ask for free gas needed by Transnistria.

Protests erupted across Transnistria on January 24, with residents of the Moscow-backed separatist region demanding that the Moldovan authorities provide gas supplies amid an ongoing energy crisis. 

Russia has added to the pressure on Chisinau. While the separatist authorities in Tiraspol were organising rallies, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on January 24 that Moscow is ready to defend its nationals — a reference to the GOTR troops and peacekeepers in Transnistria. 

It is difficult to estimate whether the pro-Kremlin and anti-Chisinau propaganda has produced effects among the population. Pro-Russian activists have already gone as far as Chisinau, where they are spreading flyers announcing the imminent energy crisis spreading across the entire country. The electricity price already surged in the territory controlled by the pro-EU authorities, by 65-75% in January alone.