If a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine is agreed after President-elect Donald Trump takes over Ukraine will hold presidential elections and as the talk grows Ukraine’s elite are already starting to prepare their campaigns.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's term officially expired in May last year, but as the Ukrainian constitution forbids elections during martial law, his term was indefinitely extended for the duration of the war.

The end of martial law will trigger the need for elections, which are supposed to happen within three months.

Zelenskiy has cut a heroic figure over the last three years of the conflict. When Russian troops were approaching the capital in the first days of the invasion, the US State Department offered to evacuate him by helicopter. “I don’t need a ride. I need ammo,” he famously shot back. The video he later shot and posted on X of himself standing on the street outside the Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) buildings with the whole of the Cabinet, saying “I am here” has become the stuff of legend.

But after three years of debilitating war, relentless propaganda and an increasingly aggressive conscription campaign, Zelenskiy has lost some of his shine. As bne IntelliNews reported, trust in Zelenskiy has fallen to less than half and another poll in November found if elections were held tomorrow he would be roundly beaten by former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. It seems despite having served his country with honour and determination, Zelenskiy is on the way out of office.

Getting ready for change

Zelenskiy's political faction, the Servant of the People, is already preparing for elections, RBC Ukraine reports.

A reshuffle is being planned to rebuff the party’s image that has lost a lot of its shine. The name will definitely go, reports RBC, as it has long since exhausted itself. It was the name of a very popular comedy series, starring Zelenskiy, but his comic persona is a thing of ancient history and if anything the brand is now considered to be toxic. The current working title for the new party name is “Zelenskiy bloc.”

As many as 90% of the current mono-majority MPs may be replaced, many of which have become mired in corruption scandals, or accused of incompetence. They will be replaced with local leaders, volunteers, popular bloggers and famous military figures to form the new roster, RBC reports, citing sources close to the presidential administration. There will also be some “technical” appointments, such as the current head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, a long standing personal friend of Zelenskiy’s.

“This time, they will probably approach the composition more seriously,” one source within the administration told RBC. “The team will still be diverse, but candidates will be vetted more carefully to ensure they are more capable and avoid the issues we faced in this convocation.”

Zelenskiy’s team has asked regional administrations to submit dossiers on potential candidates, as the revamp of the party leadership gets underway. These dossiers include detailed profiles and regional sentiment analysis to aid in candidate selection. A deputy head of the presidential office is overseeing this effort, ensuring alignment with local and national priorities.

“It’s not necessarily tied directly to the elections,” explained another insider. “But these assessments will certainly shape the final candidate list.”

Fedorov, Zaluzhnyi are the potential leaders

One of the names emerging as potential replacement for Zelenskiy as head of the parliamentary fraction is Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. He is considered to be a frontrunner to lead the restructured Servant of the People party. While discussions remain preliminary, sources close to the administration told RBC he is a key figure capable of driving the party's electoral strategy.

Complicating Zelenskiy’s plans is the highly competent and widely respected field commander Zaluzhnyi, whom Zelenskiy fired last year after he challenged Zelenskiy directly by describing the war as at a stalemate in contradiction to Bankova’s upbeat message. Zaluzhnyi was subsequently appointed ambassador to London, but ironically his sacking has benefited him by distancing him from the looming humiliation that the ceasefire talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin are likely to inflict on Zelenskiy; analysts universally believe Zelenskiy will have to concede a significant amount of territory to Russia to bring the fighting to a halt.

Opinion polls show former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi as a leading contender in any potential presidential race, and currently the most likely to win the election.

Bankova has reportedly explored ways to integrate Zaluzhny into Zelenskiy’s political framework, including proposing he lead the parliamentary campaign. However, Zaluzhny has yet to confirm any political ambitions, maintaining a low profile but remaining in the public eye.

The mayor of Kyiv and former boxer Vitali Klitschko is also likely to throw his hat into the ring as a Zelenskiy rival. The two men have clashed after Bankova tried to usurp Klitschko’s executive powers to run the capital, without success.

The Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, is another possible political force. Ukraine’s top spy master, Budanov has a high public profile and is widely respected as a competent manager that scored many victories in his battle with Russia’s FSB. Bankova was very surprised when Budanov was ranked second in the polls after Zaluzhnyi in the "military" category.

Sources close to the intelligence service claim that, due to the ongoing war, Budanov has not made any decision about whether or not to go into politics, reports RBC.

 

Opposition alignments

Ukraine’s old guard opposition leaders from the Orange Revolution era are also getting ready to enter the fray.

The Orange Revolution leader and former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, and former president Petro Poroshenko, whom Zelenskiy defeated in the 2019 election, are preparing their groundwork for a parliamentary campaign.

Both leaders have reportedly reached out to Zaluzhny, hoping to forge alliances ahead of the elections, although RBC’s sources suggest these overtures have yielded no tangible results. Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party is hoping to build a coalition strategy, whereas Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party has been reorganising local networks and re-energising its grassroots network.

Both these leaders have their Orange revolution credentials, but the former pro-Russian part of Opposition Platform – For Life, led by Viktor Medvedchuk, was banned by Zelenskiy in 2022. Medvedchuk is close to the Kremlin and Putin is godfather to his daughter. Eventually, Medvedchuk tried to flee the country in disguise but was captured, before being finally exchanged in a prisoner swap. He now lives in Moscow.

The Party of Regions that backed ousted president Viktor Yanukovych, and at one time the dominant political force in Ukraine, has also been closed down. The 2014 Maidan Revolution severely weakened the Party of Regions, as it was closely associated with pro-Russian policies and corruption scandals. Many members defected or distanced themselves from the party following Yanukovych’s flight to Russia in 2014. Many of its members migrated to the Opposition Platform – For Life.

The other political force in Ukraine that will compete in the parliamentary elections is Holos (Voice). Established by musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, Holos positions itself as a reformist and pro-European force, though its parliamentary representation is the smallest of the four parties serving in the current parliament.

There are several other small parties that served in the pre-war Rada that may revive their images and run for election, but the Maidan revolution and the war have radically changed the make-up of the domestic political firmament.

International observers, particularly the United States, have urged Kyiv to prepare for elections soon after the cessation of hostilities, viewing it as a step towards stabilisation. However, Ukrainian officials caution that significant preparatory work remains.