US and UK pledge $2.3bn in aid to Ukraine, but no breakthrough on long-range missile strike permission

US and UK pledge $2.3bn in aid to Ukraine, but no breakthrough on long-range missile strike permission
The US and UK foreign ministers promised a new $2.3bn of combined aid for Ukraine during a trip to Kyiv, but agreement was reached on permission to use Nato-weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin September 12, 2024

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on September 12, unveiling a combined aid package of $2.3bn to support Ukraine’s ongoing fight against Russia, but there was no breakthrough on the pressing issue of permission to use Nato-supplied missiles to strike targets in Russia.

“We remain committed to Ukraine’s victory,” Blinken said at a press conference. “The bottom line is this: We want Ukraine to win.”

Blinken said he and Lammy would report back to their “bosses” after their talks in Kyiv with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, suggesting no decision on granting permission to use long-range missiles will be reached during the visit.

The high-profile visit was interrupted by air raid warnings as Ukraine continues to press its allies for more advanced weapons, including long-range missiles, to target Russian bases used to launch attacks across all of Ukrainian territory, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is banned from using its Western-supplied weapons to do the same inside Russia.

Speaking after the talks, Blinken confirmed that discussions on long-range weaponry took place, though no immediate decisions were made.

"Among other things, we discussed long-range fires, but a number of other things as well. And as I said at the outset, I'm going to take that discussion back to Washington to brief the president on what I heard," he told reporters.

In the days before the meeting, US officials said they were warming to the idea of giving Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia, but no details have been released. Britain has also said that privately it is willing to grant permission, but the idea has been vetoed by Washington so far.

The US is hesitating as part of its unspoken “escalation management” which is designed to prevent a direct clash between Russia and a Nato member that could lead to a global war. Until now the West has supplied Ukraine with “some, but not enough”: some modern weapons to ensure that Ukraine does not lose, but not enough to allow it to win.

With the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) increasingly hard pressed, especially around the Donbas city of Pokrovsk, Washington continued with its strategy by announcing a fresh injection of money and arms during the visit.

The US committed to more than $700mn in humanitarian assistance and another $325mn to repair the damaged energy system. Another $290mn is earmarked for food, water, shelter, health care and education programs for Ukrainians in need in the country and refugees outside the country. The remaining $102mn will be used for mine-removal work. Late last week, the US announced it would send $250mn more in weapons to Ukraine, including air-defence missiles and artillery.

The UK confirmed a GBP600mn ($781mn) package aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s energy grid and supporting demining efforts ahead of what is expected to be a very hard winter for Ukrainians.

Last week, the national energy company, Ukrenergo, said in its best-case scenario there would be at least 12 hours of blackouts a day, and in the worst-case, blackouts could last 20 hours a day. Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s power assets since January and destroyed most of the non-nuclear power and heating installations – about half of Ukraine’s total generating capacity. Some of these facilities have been hit by Russian missiles more than 40 times this year.

Relations between Ukraine and its Western partners have been increasingly strained by Kyiv’s almost daily appeals for the West’s authorization to use long-range weapons deeper inside Russia, adding to the Ukraine fatigue that has built up over this year.

Zelenskiy has begun to sound increasingly desperate as the AFU is largely defenceless against the large glide bombs that Russia introduced over the summer, but have a limited 50km range. The AFU wants to use the longer-range missiles to destroy the air fields the plane that launches the glide bombs need to bring them to the border regions.

Zelenskiy, speaking before a press conference, hinted that Ukraine’s ability to launch deeper strikes into Russian territory would depend on the “optimism” of its Western partners.

"Let's count on some strong decisions at least. For us, it's very important for today," Zelenskiy said. He later described the talks as "long and meaningful" in a comment posted on his Telegram channel.

The UK has already supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, capable of reaching targets up to 250km away. However, Ukrainian officials insist that access to further long-range missiles is critical for neutralising Russian air bases used for launching devastating glide bomb attacks from within Russian borders.

The US has supplied Ukraine with the powerful Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) system that can fly similar distances. In anticipation of permission being granted, Russia has already pulled back 80% of its air force, putting it out of range of the ATACMS missiles.

Impact of Iranian Missiles

The geopolitical landscape surrounding Ukraine's requests for advanced weaponry and permissions has shifted in the last months after it was revealed that Iran has started to transfer ballistic missiles to Russia.

Blinken has accused Iran of providing Russia with Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles, calling the move a “dramatic escalation” of the war.

Lammy noted that the delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia has "clearly changed the debate" on long-range weapons. "As we see the Russians working with their partners, we see this transfer of ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia, it is important that we do more to support Ukraine to win in their efforts," he said in an interview with the BBC.

Iran, however, has denied the allegations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refuted the claims, accusing Western nations of relying on "faulty intelligence and flawed logic" regarding missile deliveries.

While the US has loosened some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles in May, allowing Ukraine to hit Russian rocket launches just across the border from the easternmost Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, US President Joe Biden indicated a day earlier that his administration is still considering going further.

"We're working that out now," Biden said when asked whether the US would lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons on September 11.

Despite the high-profile visit and renewed commitments of aid, no breakthrough was announced on allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory.

The visit by Blinken and Lammy was marked by security concerns as air raid alerts were triggered twice during their time in Kyiv. A planned wreath-laying ceremony was cancelled due to the alerts, which were believed to be related to ballistic missile threats. However, the intended target of the missiles remained unclear.

In addition to announcing new aid, the US, UK, France, and Germany also imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, further escalating tensions over Tehran’s alleged role in supplying missiles to Moscow. The UK government summoned Iran’s top diplomat over the accusations as Western powers seek to curtail Russia’s growing missile capabilities, bolstered by Iranian support.

 

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