The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now poses complex challenges for Russia, which had maintained a significant military and naval presence in the country for nearly a decade.

As armed groups of various affiliations have taken control of Syrian territory, including the strategic Latakia province where Russia maintains key military installations, Moscow faces difficult decisions about its future role in the region.

Despite al-Assad leaving on December 7, Russia granted asylum to the toppled President of Syria, who arrived in Moscow together with his family on December 8 via Abu Dhabi, TASS and state-controlled RIA Novosti report.

"Syria will be divided between regional players in the near future. Part of the country will be occupied by Turkey and pro-Turkish formations. Part will fall under HTS control. Part will be taken by Israel. The Kurds will continue building their state," said Dmitry Suslov, deputy director at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow's Higher School of Economics.

Military expert Vadim Kolyuzin, head of the IAMP Centre at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy, struck a cautiously optimistic tone regarding Russia's military bases. "The attitude towards Russians in Syria is generally good. So there shouldn't be particular concern, but naturally, we need to be prepared for possible incidents. I think our military there understands all this," he told Russian media.

Moscow's intervention in Syria began in 2015 with clear objectives – to support the Assad government and “eliminate terrorists” who might later target Russian cities. However, experts note that Russia was never the primary force in the pro-government coalition, with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah shouldering much of the ground operations.

"Through Israel's efforts over the past year, Iran's positions in Syria were sharply weakened. Lebanese Hezbollah was distracted by the conflict in Lebanon, and its assistance to Assad decreased dramatically", explained Elena Suponina, an international affairs analyst.

The situation highlights the limits of Russian influence in Syria. "Assad is not a little boy for us to take responsibility for his fate, although we did provide him with refuge. Russia behaved very cautiously, not exceeding its obligations. These obligations did not include fighting wars instead of the Syrian army", Suponina added.

Notably, opposition forces who entered Damascus ransacked the Iranian embassy but left the Russian diplomatic mission untouched, suggesting a potentially different relationship with any new power structure.

The bases at Tartus and Khmeimim have served as crucial logistics hubs for Russia's operations in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean. "Our military presence in Syria is necessary for projecting power into Africa. Syria provided staging bases and logistical services, playing a colossal role in the return to Africa that we've observed in recent years," Suslov noted.

Kolyuzin drew parallels with other long-standing foreign bases in hostile territory: "There is a precedent – the American naval base at Guantanamo in Cuba, which has existed for many decades in friendly surroundings. Syria remains unpredictable. Perhaps the country will only improve relations with Russia, becoming even more friendly".

The developments have prompted speculation about wider geopolitical implications, including from US President-elect Donald Trump, who linked events in Syria to potential peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv.

Earlier on December 8, Trump said that Russia’s abandonment of Assad led to his downfall, adding Moscow should never have become involved with the Syrian civil war. "Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by [President] Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer," Trump wrote. "There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place," Trump wrote. "They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine ... a war that should never have started and could go on forever."

Trump, who is set to take power on January 20, is expected to pull more troops out of the Middle East as part of his “America First” strategy, including some 900 American troops currently occupying bases in the east of Syria on the border with Iraq. Trump added Russia and Iran: “are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success.”

However, analysts are stressing fundamental differences between Russia's involvement in Syria and Ukraine. "Trump once again expressed his negotiating position, the one he and his circle lean towards. The earliest possible ceasefire along the line of contact, freezing the conflict – and conducting indefinitely long negotiations about further political arrangement," Suslov explained.

Russian experts stress that Ukraine holds far greater strategic importance for Moscow than Syria ever did. "From the beginning in Syria, Moscow played a secondary role, didn't determine the country's foreign and domestic policy, didn't make global bets on Syria. Ukraine is completely different. There, combat operations are taking place including on Russian territories, and Russia is at the helm, which it does not intend to abandon," according to Russian news.ru.