The US is in “standby mode” while it waits for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to get together a detailed target list of Russian military assets he wants to strike with Nato-supplied long-range missiles.

An increasingly frustrated Zelenskiy lambasted his Western allies for dragging their heels at a conference in Kyiv over the weekend, just as the Kursk incursion seems to be paying dividends after the Kremlin was forced to withdraw significant forces from some its assault in the Donbas to shore up the defence of the Russian region, which was invaded by Ukraine six weeks ago.

Threats of war

In the wake of reports that the US and UK are poised to approve the use of Western missiles to attack deep inside of Russia, Russian President Putin is threatening a new serious escalation in the war, as the move would “change the very nature of the conflict” and would mean Nato and Russia were “at war.” He warned that Russia would take “appropriate decisions.”

In response, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said, following a meeting with US President Joe Biden last week, “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away. Ukraine has the right to self-defence.”

No decision has been made on Zelenskiy’s almost daily pleas for permission to use US-made missiles to strike targets inside Russia. Biden said that the White House is in “standby mode” until it receives the details of a “victory plan” that Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) is drawing up, The Times reports. The plan is reportedly a list of specific targets Kyiv is seeking to destroy through using the US missiles.

Initially, Ukraine aimed to use Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to strike Russian airfields. However, 90% of the planes Russia uses for bombing operations have been moved back by Russia and are now stationed at airfields beyond the range of ATACMS. The list has been altered and now includes command centres, fuel and weapons depots, and troop concentration sites, according to Reuters. With a range of about 300 km the US ATACMS and Franco-British Storm Shadow missiles in question can strike dozens of Russian military installations inside Russia, pushing its forces well back from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine storm shadow missiles’ range for striking targets in Russia

Even if the permission is granted, the US has hinted that it will not supply Ukraine with many. ATACMS restrictions are "the subject of intense consultation among allies and partners, and will be (discussed) between President (Biden) and President Zelenskiy," US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said. The US has warned that Ukraine will only receive a limited number of missiles such as the powerful ATACMS and should use them “efficiently.”

Talks on the target list began last week when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kyiv to meet with Zelenskiy and start the discussion on how a limited use of US missiles might work.

Russia moves troops from Donbas to Kursk

Russia has sacrificed its assault on the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donbas to bring significant numbers of troops to shore up the fight against the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) incursion into the Russian region of Kursk in the last days, according to Euromaidan press.

Russian forces finally sacrifice Pokrovsk offensive to defend Kursk

If confirmed, then the Russian decision is a major military victory for the AFU, which sought to relieve pressure on its defending forces in the Donbas with a diversion by entering Russian territory.

Until now, Russia has brought up forces to contain the incursion by Ukraine’s elite units, but sourced them from other regions. As the fighting in Kursk intensifies, Russia’s high command has been forced to pause its assault in the Donbas and redeploy forces from the front line there to Kursk, according to reports.

Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s spy master and chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR), said in a speech over the weekend that Russia is in a rush to end the war as its economy is cooling and will face serious economic problems in the summer of 2025 or early 2026.

The so-called US strangulation sanctions introduced in December that target banking are starting to seriously cut into Russia’s ability to get paid for its oil and metal exports. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) issued a pessimistic medium-term macroeconomic outlook at the start of August that predicts growth will fall off a cliff in 2025 after two years of surprisingly strong gains. US intelligence estimates Russia has spent up to $211bn on the war in Ukraine so far and has lost up to $1.3 trillion in economic growth out to 2026, but the new sanctions are already cutting into Russia’s exports and could squeeze its ability to pay for the war next year.

“The serious problems in the Russian economy have already begun. And these problems are far from the only thing that can lead Russia to defeat. Putin knows this too. That's why he is bluffing,” Budanov said during the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum in Kyiv on September 15.

Missile permission not a game changer

Even if permission is given, while the missiles will be very useful and ease the pressure on the AFU, unless they are provided in large numbers, they are unlikely to turn the tide, say analysts.

“There is little reason to believe that using air-launched cruise missiles will significantly increase Ukraine’s chances of winning what has become a war of attrition, in which the Russians have enormous advantages over Ukraine in population and military manufacturing. The Russians are wearing down the Ukrainians’ ability to put well-trained, well-equipped forces into battle, and air-launched cruise missiles will not change that,” George Beebe, a former CIA Russia intelligence analyst, said in an opinion piece.

Russians can adjust to longer-range Ukrainian strike capabilities, as they have already adjusted to the previous provision of HIMARS artillery and ATACMS ground launched missiles. They have already moved supply depots and aircraft out of the ATACMS range, according to reports, and have grown more effective in their use of electronic warfare countermeasures to neutralise advanced Western weaponry.

Moreover, to change the course of the war, the West would have to supply very large numbers of very long-range missiles, but according to reports, the White House is, like the supplies of advanced tanks and F-16 jets, only considering sending a small numbers of basic range models, as part of the US’ general “some, but not enough” policy of limited supplies to Ukraine.

Zelenskiy will travel to the US in the coming weeks to lobby the White House for sufficient supplies as part of his “victory plan” and present his strategy to US President Joe Biden, as well as presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Bild reported that the plan also includes a proposal to freeze the conflict and de facto concede control of some of Ukraine’s territory to Russia – a suggestion that Bankova denied over the weekend. China and Brazil have also recently presented a new peace plan and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also called for an end to the war and is refusing to allow Ukraine to use German weapons inside Russia.

Zelenskiy frustrated

Zelenskiy is clearly becoming increasingly frustrated with the Western allies’ slow reaction and lashed out with a series of pointed criticisms during his speech at the annual YES summit.

Striking to the heart of the contradiction on the limits on Ukraine targeting assets inside Russia, the president said: "Russia doesn’t need permission from Iran or North Korea to use their weapons on Ukraine. We need permission, which we don’t have, to use partners' weapons on Russia."

"If the allies are jointly shooting down missiles and drones in the skies over the Middle East, why is there still no similar decision to jointly shoot down Russian missiles and 'Shaheds' over Ukraine?” he added. "When we tell our allies in meetings that we need air defence systems, especially Patriots – and knowing there are enough in the world – we get a dry response: 'we are working on it.' Then, months later, the same 'we are working on it.'"

"So far, the only country shooting down Russian strike drones when they enter their airspace is Belarus – not Nato countries.” Zelenskiy said, referring to a debate on if Nato countries should actively shoot at Russian missiles that cross into their territory. "Nato countries say they can’t bring down drones because of weather. This is beyond humiliating… Yesterday, Russia killed International Red Cross workers, yet the organisation didn’t have the courage to name Russia as the aggressor in their statement."

Zelenskiy main source of frustration is Ukraine’s intelligence knows exactly where Russia’s forces are, which have been able to launch attacks over the whole territory of Ukraine with impunity, thanks to the de facto no-fly zone over Russia imposed on Ukraine by the White House.

"We and our partners know exactly all the spots where Russia is gathering forces for strikes. We know where Russian air defence is located, where Russian missile launchers are being deployed, and what logistics routes are critical for the Russian occupation forces. All of this can be destroyed in a matter of months,” said Zelenskiy. "Let me remind you that the full-scale war has been going on for the third year now. This means that there is not enough strength to end it."

Unintended consequences

Analysts worry that granting permission for Ukraine to use Western missiles to hit targets in Russia will harden Russian demands at any future bargaining table. In July, Ukraine was inching towards a ceasefire deal, but since the start of the Kursk incursion on August 4, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has taken that card off the table.

While Putin hinted at the start of WWIII, he was careful to keep the nature of Russia’s response vague. Subsequently, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov hinted that the more likely response would be that Russia would use its monopolistic stranglehold over some key commodities and ban exports, thus sparking a fresh economic crisis in the West, starting with a ban on uranium exports. The US, for one, remains heavily dependent on imports of Russian uranium to fuel its fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs), as it has very little domestic production of the enriched U235 ore used as fuel. However, there are plenty of other options available to the Kremlin short of going to war with Nato.

“Russia is very unlikely to react immediately with nuclear escalation. Instead, it could vastly increase its existing acts of sabotage in Europe (which up to now have been more in the nature of warning shots than major attacks); provide missiles and satellite intelligence to Hezbollah or the Houthis; or, if it feels the need to go further, attack Western satellites, which are key to targeting and guidance for Ukrainian strikes,” says Beebe.