For much of the 52 days since his January 20 inauguration, Donald Trump has made headlines around the world for flip-flopping on policies linked to his long-threatened trade tariffs, US military support for Ukraine and even USAid which has, for 63-years, provided much needed assistance to impoverished communities around the world.

His on-again, off-again tariff threats to his closest neighbours Canada and Mexico offer an insight into the lack of balance Trump demonstrates daily when issuing orders. That there are no obvious checks and balances on the president’s actions in place in the current US administration is worrying.

Couple this to the now infamous Trump-Vance ambush of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House in late February which showed just how quickly, if offended, President Trump turns on his friends, and even his closest confidantes must have their doubts about the level-headedness of the man they follow. Zelenskiy is after all a man the US president once said he knew very well and is a person he gets along with very well.

Similarly void of balance or credibility to date have been Trump’s promises over how he would end the war in Ukraine. At time of typing, he has yet to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine despite repeatedly claiming in the run up to his re-election that before he even arrives at the White House he would “have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled” and that he “will get the problem solved” and he “will get it solved in rapid order and it will take …. no longer than one day” according to a March 2023 Channel Four news report. Fast-forward 52 days after Trump’s wife Melania held a family bible as Donald J. was sworn in as the 47th president by Chief Justice John Roberts though, and the war continues...

To this end, half a world away in Taiwan, a self-governing island nation of 23.5mn with a democratically-elected government, millions living under threat of invasion by China can only watch and wait to see how Trump will respond once the geopolitical spotlight eventually shifts to the Western Pacific.

Long threatened with ‘reunification’ by neighbouring China, despite having never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party on the Asian mainland, Taiwan daily stands up to Chinese efforts at intimidation.

It does so alone as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) sends fighter planes and reconnaissance aircraft around the island every day. On, and no doubt beneath, the waves, China’s naval equivalent the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAAN) does the same.

Verbal assurances of support from around the world have been noted in recent months and years and both the US and neighbouring Japan have been particularly vocal of late in efforts to maintain the peace in the Taiwan Strait. To this end too, shows of strength have come from far and wide with naval vessels from Germany, Japan, the UK and US all deliberately transiting the Taiwan Strait since 2021 despite official protests by Beijing.

But China persists, and with a 71-year-old Xi Jinping at the helm as ‘president-for-life’ known to be eyeing ‘reunification’ as his legacy, US Admiral John Aquilino, head of the Indo-Pacific Command declared in March 2024 that he believes China will be ready to cross the 180km-km wide Taiwan Strait and invade Taiwan by 2027.

The admiral was speaking before the US Armed Services Committee according to a Forbes report from the time, and said “all indications point to” the Chinese military “potentially invading Taiwan by 2027.”

Should this ultimately prove an accurate assessment on the part of the naval officer, under current agreements with Washington, the US is committed to the Taiwan Relations Act to "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character" in order to prevent Beijing from using military force or other means to achieve said ‘reunification’.

However, with President Trump only in February 2025 being asked about his policy on Chinese aggression against Taiwan, the most powerful man in the world opted for a less than encouraging "I never comment on that," according to Taipei’s government news outlet Focus Taiwan.

Trump added "I don't comment on it because I don't want to ever put myself in that position." At the same time the US president went on to say he has a "great relationship" with Xi Jinping, although given his recent form vis-a-vis Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy, cynics point out that such statements of friendship from Trump may actually work in Taiwan’s favour one day.

As worrying for Taiwan as Trump’s obvious lack of support is – and should be – the US president’s comments prior to the election on US TV network NBC that he would "never say" if the US was actually willing to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression should be seen as equally distracting. At the time, Trump merely offered an additional lukewarm comment that he would "prefer" China not invade the island nation.

This lack of clarity from the White House and subsequent verbal claims by Trump that Taiwan "stole our chip business" as Focus Taiwan has reported plus his belief that Taipei needs to "pay (the US) for defence" has some in Taiwan worried.

As ever with President Trump though, just when he appears to be flipping one way he flops back the other, or at least his administration does; as was seen with the US accusing China of employing "coercive efforts" to exclude Taiwan from the international community through what it describes as the "misuse" of United Nations Resolution 2758, just a week ago. As reported by Focus Taiwan, on March 8 a spokesperson for the US Department of State deemed Beijing's "deliberate misinterpretation" of the resolution part of a broader strategy to isolate Taiwan on the world stage.

"The resolution places no restrictions on any nation's sovereign right to engage meaningfully with Taiwan," the spokesperson claimed "Nor does it preclude Taiwan’s substantive participation in the United Nations system or other multilateral platforms."

The comments were made in response to a request from Taiwan’s own Central News Agency (CNA) on Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s reference to the resolution earlier the same day, in which Wang used it to justify Beijing’s territorial claims over Taiwan.

Wang contended that Resolution 2758 had "settled the matter of China’s representation in the United Nations, including Taiwan," speaking after the conclusion of the "Two Sessions" meetings, the most significant annual political gathering of China’s legislature and top advisory body.

In response, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) duly hit back at Wang’s claims while accusing Beijing of attempting to “deceive and mislead the international community."

Taiwan’s MOFA further reiterated that the resolution neither mentions Taiwan nor grants Beijing the authority to represent Taiwan or its people within the United Nations; Resolution 2758 having been adopted by the 26th UN General Assembly in 1971, to clarify China’s representation within the organisation. Although this in turn saw Taiwan (the Republic of China (ROC)) replaced by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), at the time and over five decades since, the resolution made no reference to Taiwan or the ROC by name.

Whether or not this apparent support for Taiwan by the Department of State was in any way directly or otherwise linked to a nominee for undersecretary of defence for policy in the United States, Elbridge Colby, calling for Taipei to increase its defence spending to 10% of GDP to help deter an invasion from its current sub-3% level, remains open.

It is likely not a coincidence though that President Trump had raised the same issue in October 2024, when he also called for 10% of Taiwanese GDP to be spent on defence, or that Colby was speaking to the same highly influential Armed Services Committee that Admiral Aquilino stood before a year prior.

At present, Taiwan’s government has allocated $19.7bn for defence in 2025, around 2.45% percent of GDP, although this was later reduced by the opposition-led Legislature. Taiwan’s President, Lai Ching-te, meanwhile has pledged to introduce a special budget to push spending beyond 3% of GDP, although this proposal would itself also require legislative approval, and still falls far short of the 10% Colby is calling for.

Taiwan’s second in command, Premier Cho Jung-tai, on March 12 was then quoted by CNA as saying that Taiwan "does not have the capacity" to allocate a full 10% of its GDP to defence spending.

"It is impossible to allocate more than $60.73bn for defence spending, given the current central government's budget scale," Cho said in front of the nation’s Legislature.

Impossible or not, with US demands that Taiwan spend more on defence unlikely to be met despite this being something 66% of the US voting public also supported in a July 2024 poll, few would be surprised if this lack of spending one day ended up being regurgitated by President Trump as reason not to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.

When viewed as part of the bigger picture alongside the same poll revealing that 44% of Americans also see avoiding nuclear conflict with Beijing as more important than supporting Taiwan, and Elbridge Colby deeming US public support for Taiwan’s defence as uncertain at best, guaranteed US support for Taiwan does not appear to be a given under Donald Trump. So much so that Taiwan and its 23.5mn residents might just need to prepare for being grasped by the scruff of the neck by a man in a long red tie as the People’s Liberation Army bus rounds the corner.