The January 3 bombings in Kerman, Iran, have significantly escalated tensions in the already dangerously volatile stand-off between Iran and Israel. The atrocity could have bloody repercussions across the the Middle East, particularly if it brings into action Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance”, which includes Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and Hamas in Gaza.

The bombings, which targeted a commemoration for General Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian general who was blown up in Baghdad on January 20, resulted in at least 100 deaths and over 180 injuries. So far there is no confirmed culprit, though some Iranian officials have been quick to blame Israel. Demonstrators returned to the site of the blast at 15:00 GMT chanting, “Death to Israel, Death to Israel,” giving an indication who they think is behind the attack outside the graveyard.  

The relationship between Iran and Israel has recently been marked by increasing hostility, fuelled by Iran's military and nuclear ambitions and Israel's attempts to isolate the Islamic Republic by reaching deals with other Middle East countries.

Israel has focused on the nuclear deal (JCPOA) between Iran and the West, which it has been attempting to blow up since its inception in 2016. The country also views Tehran's activities and support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah as direct threats to its existence.

This is even more on point currently as Israel accuses Tehran of supplying Hamas with enough rockets and know-how to conduct its October 7 assault, which killed 1,200 Israeli youth at a concert in the Negev Desert, starting off this new round of regional tensions.

But both sides, while not officially acknowledging the fact, have been engaging in a shadow war against each other well before the October Hamas assault, with Israel targeting the sites of Iran's allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria to slow down or disrupt Iran's military advance.  

In response to the growing tensions, the Israeli government appears to be enacting the "Octopus Doctrine," a policy from 2022 which implies a more direct approach to confronting Iran, not just targeting Iran's allies but also elements of the Iranian power structure itself​​​​.

However, experts believe these efforts have not significantly altered the trajectory of Iran's regional gains in recent years, with its forces now permanently planted in many of Tel Aviv’s western neighbours.

In response to the January 3 attacks, Israel is already facing an increased spillover of the conflict with neighbouring Hezbollah, which sits on their northern border and has threatened to get involved with Hamas’ fight to the south. Hezbollah hit the Israeli settlement of Shlomi within hours of the blast in Iran, Israel media reported. In response to Hezbollah's hit on Shlomi, Israeli warplanes crossed the border with Lebanon and hit several sites, according to media from that side of the border, killing dozens of militiamen.

The Houthi rebel movement in Yemen has also become more active and its long-range attacks are primarily attributed to Iranian support.The Houthis' intensification of attacks on Israel is driven by a complex mix of ideological, political, and strategic factors. These attacks, which have included drone and missile strikes on Israeli territory and assaults on international shipping in the Red Sea, align with Iran’s long-term strategic imperatives and are indicative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s willingness to escalate matters significantly​​.

One of the boldest actions undertaken by the Houthis was the commando-style seizure of the vehicle carrier Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea, demonstrating their capacity and willingness to engage in high-profile international attacks. The US and its allies have issued a warning to the Houthis that they would “bear the responsibility of the consequences” of further attacks on shipping.

With the attack in Kerman today, there is now every possibility that Iran will step up efforts via their southern partner by effectively cutting off the Red Sea, while the IRGC Navy blocks the Strait of Hormuz. If this happens, this could arouse to action not just Israel but also the US and other Western allies, leading to potentially a very dangerous escalation.