Uzbek GDP is expected to expand by 5.5% in 2023 and 5.6% in 2024, according to a revised economic update from the World Bank.
The forecast sees Uzbekistan this year trailing Tajikistan for growth, with the Tajiks expected to post 6.5%, but stay ahead of Kazakhstan (4.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (3.5%).
Main risk factors to Uzbek growth are considered to be the slowing of the Russian economy, the persistence of pro-inflationary factors and tough world financial conditions. Higher gas, gold and copper prices, as well as productivity growth, could be significant pluses.
Uzbekistan posted growth of 5.6% for 1H23. A significant increase in exports (+16%), primarily on shipments of cars and agricultural products and robust tourism, compensated for a decline in remittances.
The Uzbek som, meanwhile, has moved into difficult territory, having lately depreciated against the dollar by 8%.
The budget deficit has increased to 5.7% of GDP due to social spending growth and energy subsidies, combined with excise tax and VAT cuts.
One of the main long-term risk factors for Central Asia as a whole is climate change and the threat of inadequate water resources that could hit intensive economic sectors such as agriculture and hydropower.
Related Articles
Uzbekistan sticks with 14% policy rate
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) on October 24 kept its key policy rate at 14% per annum, citing easing inflation but ongoing risks. The ... more
Report says explosion hit pipeline that delivers Turkmen gas to Russia, but Turkmenistan no longer sells gas to Moscow
Ukrainian outlet Kyiv Post on August 2 reported sources within Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) as stating that an explosion in Russia disabled a section of ... more
New agreement provides for more than 1,000 weekly flights between Uzbekistan and Russia
Uzbekistan and Russia have struck an agreement under which the number of weekly direct flights between the two countries can be more than tripled to more than 1,000 per week, according to ... more