World Bank sees two years of Uzbek growth of around 5.5%

By Muzaffar Ismailov in Tashkent October 9, 2023

Uzbek GDP is expected to expand by 5.5% in 2023 and 5.6% in 2024, according to a revised economic update from the World Bank.

The forecast sees Uzbekistan this year trailing Tajikistan for growth, with the Tajiks expected to post 6.5%, but stay ahead of Kazakhstan (4.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (3.5%).

Main risk factors to Uzbek growth are considered to be the slowing of the Russian economy, the persistence of pro-inflationary factors and tough world financial conditions. Higher gas, gold and copper prices, as well as productivity growth, could be significant pluses.

Uzbekistan posted growth of 5.6% for 1H23. A significant increase in exports (+16%), primarily on shipments of cars and agricultural products and robust tourism, compensated for a decline in remittances.

The Uzbek som, meanwhile, has moved into difficult territory, having lately depreciated against the dollar by 8%.

The budget deficit has increased to 5.7% of GDP due to social spending growth and energy subsidies, combined with excise tax and VAT cuts.

One of the main long-term risk factors for Central Asia as a whole is climate change and the threat of inadequate water resources that could hit intensive economic sectors such as agriculture and hydropower.

Read in IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Articles

Russia’s expulsions of migrants reportedly nearly double in 2024 to around 80,000

Russia in 2024 expelled more than 80,000 migrants for immigration rule violations, compared to 44,200 in 2023 and 26,600 in 2022, TASS reported on January 8. The Russian state news agency cited a ... more

Kazakhstan’s transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan and China amounts to 10.2mn tonnes in 2024

Russia’s transit of oil through Kazakhstan’s pipeline system, operated by main pipeline operator KazTransOil, to China and Uzbekistan totalled 10.21mn tonnes in 2024, ... more

World Bank must wake up to Rogun mega dam “nightmare” in Tajikistan, say activists ahead of financing vote

The World Bank has to realise that the Rogun mega project “dream of the biggest dam [in the world] will turn into a nightmare for the people and nature in Tajikistan and beyond” and that it ... more

Follow Us On

Most Read

  1. Missing money, delayed arms deliveries and demands for mining deals, Ukraine's relations with Trump are off to a rocky start
    1 day ago
  2. COMMENT: Trump should do a deal with OPEC and tighten sanctions further to collapse the Russian economy
    1 day ago
  3. El Salvador's bitcoin dream falters despite lofty crypto hub ambitions
    1 day ago
  4. Nicaragua unveils new canal route in bid to rival Panama
    2 months ago
  5. Can Eritrea’s mining sector flourish under autocratic rule?
    20 hours ago
  1. Nicaragua unveils new canal route in bid to rival Panama
    2 months ago
  2. Global access to energy starts to fall for the first time in a decade, says IEA
    7 months ago
  3. South Korea probes TikTok over alleged data consent violations
    3 months ago
  4. Missing money, delayed arms deliveries and demands for mining deals, Ukraine's relations with Trump are off to a rocky start
    1 day ago
  5. COMMENT: Trump should do a deal with OPEC and tighten sanctions further to collapse the Russian economy
    1 day ago

Reports

Dismiss