Zelenskiy says he hopes to bring the war to end this year

Zelenskiy says he hopes to bring the war to end this year
Ukraine continues to inch towards a peace deal after Zelenskiy said he hopes to lay the groundwork to end the war this year in a social media post. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews August 6, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has announced his intention to prepare the ground for ending the conflict by the end of this year, in a comment posted on X.

As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine is inching towards a ceasefire but this was the most concrete expression yet by Ukraine’s leader that peace was possible this year.

Bankova’s (Ukraine’s equivalent to the Kremlin) rhetoric concerning a desire for peace has intensified in recent months as Russian forces make steady progress on the battlefield. At the same time, while the majority of Ukrainians still support the war and are against making territorial concessions, the number that want the fighting to end and would be prepared to sacrifice some territory has been growing.

Notably, at the end of July Zelenskiy said he might hold a referendum and ask for a mandate to hold peace talks and possibly concede some of the lands that Russia occupies as part of the process.

“Our unwavering goal is to prepare a real foundation for a just end to this war already this year. And it is possible,” Zelenskiy said in his post.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was in China at the end of July for a three-day meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to apparently prepare the ground for the November summit.

"China has unshakably reaffirmed its respect for the principle of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Kuleba said in a video post after the meeting. "My Chinese colleague clearly said that he agrees that we need not the illusion of peace, but a just and sustainable peace."

But many remain sceptical that a ceasefire is possible. Until recently, both Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin have maintained maximalist positions that left no common ground for talks to begin. Analysts from Ukraine’s Strana news portal have suggested that Zelenskiy’s remarks about being ready to initiate peace talks may not necessarily indicate a genuine intent to end the hostilities. Instead, they may represent a "major manoeuvre" aimed at different objectives.

Russian Deputy Foreign Ministry Spokesman Andrey Nastasyin has also expressed scepticism, saying that Moscow believes there is a lack of political will for peace from both Kyiv and the West.

In parallel with Zelenskiy talk of ending the conflict, Putin has also been signalling that he is ready for talks, and offered a ceasefire that would freeze the current front lines on the eve of the recent failed Swiss peace summit held on June 16-17. Putin said that talks were possible on the basis of the Istanbul peace deal that was agreed in the first month of the war in 2022, but later scuppered by the intervention of former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. However, many commentators have taken Putin’s offer not as an offer of a negotiated peace, but simply as an offer to capitulate.

Likewise, Zelenskiy has called a second peace summit in November to which both China and Russia would be invited, who were not present at the Swiss summit, but has qualified this, saying any peace has to be a “just peace.”

On June 14, Putin outlined Russia’s conditions for resolving the situation in Ukraine during a meeting with the Foreign Ministry. His conditions include the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from Donbas and the so-called Novorossiya land bridge that connects the Russian border to Crimea, as well as Kyiv's commitment to remaining outside Nato, the lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia and Ukraine's agreement to a non-aligned and nuclear-free status. Putin indicated that these conditions might change if Ukraine and the West refuse them. Kyiv has rejected this Russian peace plan.

Zelenskiy, speaking on the social media platform X, reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to pursuing its own "peace formula." Zelenskiy laid out a 10-point peace plan at the G20 summit in November 2022 that is equally extreme as Putin’s plan and starts with Russia’s total withdrawal from all Ukraine’s lands, including Crimea, before talks can start.

An invitation to Zelenskiy’s second peace summit has not yet been issued to Russia and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has so far suggested it will not attend if invited.

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