In a string of meetings with European leaders this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was met with warm words and promises of weapons and money, but he did not get the one things he really wanted and needs: concrete security guarantees and a commitment to military support should Russia attack Ukraine a second time in the future.

Zelenskiy met with Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto in Kyiv on January 16 to discuss Italy’s ongoing military assistance to Ukraine amid the country’s continued conflict with Russia.

The discussions between Zelenskiy and Crosetto focused on bolstering Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including enhanced air defence systems, training for Ukrainian personnel in Italy, and potential joint defence production initiatives. Brokering a security deal was discussed but not resolved.

Zelenskiy's preferred solution is for rapid accession to Nato, where its Article 5 clause covers Ukraine’s need for a security guarantee. More recently he has softened this demands to “partial” membership where only those parts of Ukraine under the government’s control would be admitted – the so-called West German model – but Nato’s members have made it very clear that they have no intention of offering Kyiv membership any time in the foreseeable future, and certainly not as part of a ceasefire deal with Russia.

During his meeting with Crosetto, Zelenskiy reiterated his call for Ukraine’s future Nato membership, describing it as “the most effective security guarantee possible” and a step toward “a just and lasting peace for all Europe.”

The meeting with Crosetto coincided with the announcement of a historic 100-year partnership agreement between Zelenskiy and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who made his first trip to Kyiv since taking office.

Sir Keir floated a proposal for Western peacekeepers to monitor a future ceasefire, but when asked about a security guarantee, the UK prime minister dodged the question and said only that the UK would “do its part” in providing Ukraine with security, but was more focused now on ensuring Kyiv’s forces were in the “strongest possible position” on the battlefield.

Zelenskiy also met with Polish President Andrzej Duda earlier this week in Warsaw, who said that Ukraine should make a Nato member as soon as possible. However, Duda leaves office following elections later this year and has no power to facilitate Ukraine’s membership of Nato. Zelenskiy also met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during the same trip who promised to accelerate Ukraine’s membership of the EU, but made no mention of Nato nor of security guarantees.

In comments to the press, Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out some of the terms for the upcoming mooted ceasefire talks. They included a statement that Russia has no intention of giving back territory such as the Crimea although he did says there was the possibility of some “land swaps” hinting that the Kremlin was willing to trade some of the territory it controls in exchange for the part of the Kursk region the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) currently occupies.

Putin also said that Ukraine’s military has to be reduced in size, but he gave no details of what the exact limitations would be. This point was previously negotiated and agreed as part of the Istanbul peace deal in 2022.

Most importantly, Putin said that Russia would accept Ukraine signing bilateral security deal with its Western allies and even would accept Ukraine continuing to receive military supplies and missiles from Nato members, however, with the caveat that they could not be used against Russia nor used to try to recapture land occupied or annexed by Moscow.

In the last year many Western counties have signed what they loosely called “security agreements” with Ukraine. The UK was the first, but former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who signed the deal with Zelenskiy in January 2024, was careful to correct the press, and said it was better named a “security assurance” than a “guarantee”. The difference is that the UK has not committed to providing military aid – British boots on the ground in Ukraine – in the event of second Russian invasion, whereas any real guarantee provides exactly that.

The failure of the West to commit to security deals to come to Ukraine’s military aid was the point that caused the Istanbul peace deal to fail. And it appears that the West remains unwilling to provide Ukraine these deals ahead of the widely expected talks that should begin after President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated next week.

The furthest that Ukraine’s allies appear to be willing to go is to provide peacekeepers to police a demilitarised zone between the government-controlled territory in the west and Russian occupied lands in the east, that is part of several of the proposals floated in recent months – an idea being championed by French President Emmanuel Macron.

One thing Zelenskiy did let drop in comments following his meeting with Starmer on Ukraine's position in the upcoming talks is that he is not prepared to “play games” in the negotiation with Putin on the size of Ukraine’s army. In lieu of Nato membership or real bilateral security deals, the only thing that Ukraine has to ensure its security is its army, and Zelenskiy clearly intends to make that as strong as he can to protect his homeland.

When asked about the possibilities of strengthening Ukraine to achieve peace, Zelenskiy replied: "Peace through strength. All this is described in detail in our Victory plan. This is not empty talk. This is a strong Ukraine. This is the kind of Ukraine that can defend its independence and protect its people. It contains all this, including a package of weapons to strengthen us on the battlefield, taking into account our army, not to reduce it by several times, as the enemy wants. In any diplomacy, defence is the most important issue for us (which includes - ed.) maintaining the size of the army we have today".

Finally, Putin repeated his demand of a guarantee that Ukraine never join Nato and that it returns to the neutrality that was enshrined in the constitution until 2014.