Zelenskiy unveils Ukraine's victory plan, says it's achievable but hinges on international partners

Zelenskiy unveils Ukraine's victory plan, says it's achievable but hinges on international partners
Ukraine's president Zelenskiy laid out some of the details of his five-point victory plan to the Rada. Top of the agenda is accelerated membership of Nato. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews October 17, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has unveiled a five-point victory plan aimed at ending the war with Russia, saying that the plan's success depends heavily on support from international partners. Zelenskiy presented the plan to Parliament, alongside senior military and intelligence officials, though parts of the proposal remain classified.

The plan includes Ukraine’s Nato membership aspirations, a reinforced defence strategy, deterrence against Russian aggression, economic development and a post-war security framework. Three classified addenda were shared with international partners, and will be presented to parliamentary faction leaders, according to ruling party parliamentary leader David Arakhamia.

"If the plan is supported, we can end the war no later than next year," Zelenskiy stated during the parliamentary session. He underscored that the plan's implementation relies on support from Western allies, rather than any actions by Russia.

At the forefront of the proposal is an invitation to join Nato. "The first point (and a very important one) is an invitation to NATO. Right now. It is a determination of how the partners see Ukraine's place in the security architecture,” he said.

While Ukraine's application to join the alliance has been pending since September 2022, Zelenskiy urged for a swift invitation to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that his geopolitical strategy has failed.

"We understand that Nato membership is a future prospect," Zelenskiy acknowledged, but argued that an immediate invitation would serve as a symbolic defeat for Moscow.

On the same day US Ambassador to Nato Julianne Smith said in comments to journalists that Ukraine will not be invited to Nato “in the short-term.”

When asked about the timing of Ukraine’s membership, Smith reiterated Ukraine’s “irreversible” to membership, but repeated that the US previous policy of not starting that process now remains unchanged.

Zelenskiy has framed the plan in terms of “victory” however, it comes at a time where the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) is making steady progress on the frontline and the strategically important town of Pokrovsk is expected to fall in the coming months that would be a major defeat for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Given the unlikelihood of an Ukrainian victory at this late stage, journalist and bne IntelliNews columnist Leonid Ragozin suggested that Zelenskiy has a Plan B in presenting his plan in terms of victory with extreme demands for things like quick entry to  Nato that he knows will be rejected, as that allows him to shift the blame for defeat onto the Allies as a betrayal of Ukraine in its hour of need. And that process appears to have already begun.

“I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed,” Tymofiy Mylovanov, rector of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) and former economics minister said in a tweet. “The West will have years to repent the betrayal of the courageous Ukrainians, whose only crime was their wish to join the Western democratic order."

Take the fight to Russia

The second point of the plan addresses the need to extend the war into Russian territory, citing the cross-border operations in Russia’s Kursk region in August as a precedent. Zelenskiy called for Western support in lifting restrictions on long-range strikes within Russia and additional supplies of advanced weaponry and added that his plan is needed to force the Kremlin to negotiate in “good faith.”

"We hear the word 'negotiations' from partners and the word 'justice' much less often. Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest (diplomacy)," he said.

"Together with our partners, we must change the circumstances so that the war ends. Regardless of what Putin wants. We must all change the circumstances so that Russia is forced to peace," he told Ukraine’s top officials.

The third part of the plan focuses on building a non-nuclear strategic deterrence force on Ukrainian soil. While the details remain classified, Zelenskiy has shared this element with leaders of the US, UK, Germany, France and Italy.

Economic growth features prominently in the fourth part of the plan, with Zelenskiy highlighting Ukraine’s abundant natural resources, such as uranium, titanium, and lithium. He proposed joint investment initiatives with the EU and US to harness these resources, aiming to boost Ukraine’s economy and contribute to European growth. Additionally, Zelenskiy stressed the importance of intensifying sanctions against Russia to erode its ability to sustain the war.

The final part of the victory plan outlines a post-war security architecture, with Zelenskiy proposing that Ukraine's experienced military could take on a greater role in securing Europe. He suggested that, following the war, Ukrainian troops could replace some US military contingents stationed in Europe, bolstering Nato's defence capabilities.

Zelenskiy warned of the global implications if Russia achieves its military objectives. "If Putin’s insane geopolitical goals are realised, it will embolden other potential aggressors, particularly in regions like the Gulf, the Indo-Pacific and Africa," he said.

The Ukrainian leader also highlighted the expanding coalition between Russia and North Korea, with Pyongyang providing not only weapons but also personnel for Russian factories and the military. Zelenskiy also pointed to support from Iran and China, framing the war as a global conflict.

"We must implement the victory plan to force Russia to attend the peace summit and be ready to end the war," Zelenskiy urged lawmakers.

 

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