Turkey has experienced zero pressure from the US since the detention of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19 and the taking to the streets of tens of thousands of Turks concerned that what democracy there is left in their country is being snuffed out.

There is no sign that US President Donald Trump has a jot of concern over what Turkey’s autocrat—as he was described once by Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden—is doing to his people amid fears that the White House is slowly but surely dismantling America’s democracy and in foreign policy is switching to a “transactional world order” from a values based order.

In fact, US State ­Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce indicated that comments should not be expected from Trump, saying Washington “will not comment on the internal decision-making ­processes of another country”.

And the signs are that Erdogan can expect some improvement in Turkey-US relations, following a phone call he had with Trump just days before the arrest of Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul.

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, in an interview with rightwing pundit Tucker Carlson, describe Trump and Erdogan’s conversation as “transformational”, adding: “I think there’s just a lot of good, positive news ­coming out of Turkey right now.”

This week, meanwhile, has brought reports that Trump is looking at removing sanctions imposed on Nato member Turkey in recent years that prevent it from buying the world’s most advanced stealth fighter jet, the F-35.

The response from Europe’s leaders to the plight of Imamoglu—widely seen as the only politician who could beat Erdogan at the ballot box—has also been weak to non-existent. Analysts say Turkey’s yet-to-be-determined roles in resolving critical geopolitical matters—such as the road to peace in Ukraine and Europe’s need to massively rearm now that it can no longer be sure that the US as a Nato member would help defend the continent in any future conflict with a hostile Russia—is one factor in that.

In a March 21 opinion piece for Foreign Affairs, the argument that “Turkey is now a full-blown autocracy” was made by Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Program.

This publication has for years contended that Turkey has long fallen under one-man rule and that any outward signs of democracy are essentially a mimicry or theatre, partly to assuage the foreign investors whom Turkey, with its chronic current account deficit, is vitally dependent on for hard currency. Erdogan, as bne IntelliNews has advised repeatedly in recent months, sees Imamoglu as a “real threat”. The investigations into Imamoglu’s alleged roles in criminal group activities and assisting terrorists could handily remove him from the scene.

A student in distress lies on a pavement following tear-gassing by security forces (Credit: X account, screenshot).

In her article, Tol notes Turkey’s leader is taking advantage of an exceptionally permissive international environment and concludes: “U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has emboldened Erdogan; he does not fear a U.S. reprisal now that Trump is actively undermining U.S. democracy and showing zero interest in holding foreign autocrats accountable for their repression. Trump’s overtures to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin have also rattled European leaders, compelling them to reengage with Turkey in hopes of shoring up their defenses against Russian aggression—and they are most likely willing to ignore Erdogan’s deepening autocracy if it means securing Ankara’s support.

“But Erdogan’s confidence in his position at home may be misplaced. The last time he tried to sideline Imamoglu it backfired spectacularly. The forced rerun of the 2019 mayoral election in Istanbul, which Imamoglu won narrowly, infuriated many voters, who saw it as unjustified interference by the government. In the second vote, Imamoglu won by a larger margin—the biggest for an Istanbul mayor in decades.

“More important, Erdogan may aspire to be like Putin, but Turkey is not Russia. Unlike Russia, which thrives on resource wealth, Turkey’s economy is deeply dependent on foreign investment. Investors are already fleeing as the county grows more authoritarian, and a slide into full autocracy will hardly bring them back. The Turkish economy would remain mired in crisis. And even a strongman must deliver results to maintain his grip on power.”

Soner Cagaptay, a biographer of Erdogan and analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, was on March 22 reported by The Guardian as saying that despite the lack of international criticism over the push to ­nullify Imamoglu, it could still ­backfire.

Referring to how Erdogan was briefly jailed in the 1990s while mayor of Istanbul, he noted how the imprisonment galvanised his supporters.

“He entered jail as a mayor and exited as a national hero,” said Cagaptay. “Erdogan is betting this won’t happen [now] due to state capture, his control of institutions and the media, and he’s not worried about international criticism.”

For his part—with the police in some instances now firing rubber bullets at protesters and reports that, overnight, police detained 343 protesters across a dozen cities—Erdogan in his thinking is able to equate protest with “terrorism”. “Turkey is not a country that will be on the street – it will not surrender to street terrorism,” he said in Ankara in response to repeated calls for protest from the head of the political opposition, Ozgur Ozel.

Calling on “millions” to demonstrate peacefully, Ozel said: "Break down those barricades without harming the police, take to the streets and squares.