Kosovo’s left-wing nationalist prime minister, Albin Kurti, is on course for re-election, according to polling data, a development that threatens to disrupt newly re-elected US President Donald Trump’s strategic ambitions for the region.

Kurti, a persistent thorn in the side of US diplomacy in the Balkans, was seen as an impediment by officials in Trump’s first administration. Among them was Richard Grenell, then special envoy for the region, whom Kurti accused of orchestrating the collapse of his first government in 2020 by putting pressure on Vetevendosje’s coalition partner to withdraw support.

His successor, Avdullah Hoti, was subsequently photographed standing uneasily alongside Trump and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic as they signed an economic normalisation agreement. Kurti’s return to power less than a year later saw him declare the deal unconstitutional.

Kurti’s reluctance to compromise for the sake of diplomatic expediency is likely as irksome to Trump as his left-wing politics. Now, as Trump settles back into the White House, Kosovo is heading for another general election. 

Polls indicate Vetevendosje will secure around 50% of the vote, possibly leaving the opposition without a viable path to power. However, a lower score would give room for rival parties to form an alliance to oust the current ruling party. 

Grenell vs Kurti

Days before the election, Grenell – now Trump’s envoy for special missions – launched a public attack on Kurti, questioning his reliability as a US partner.

Such criticism carries weight in Kosovo, a nation whose independence was forged with the backing of the US and Western allies, and where pro-American sentiment runs deep. Writing on X, Grenell accused Kurti of unilateral actions that have destabilised the region, pointing out that both Trump and Biden administrations, as well as the EU and Nato, have criticised him.

“The Kurti government was not trustworthy during Trump’s first term, nor during [former US president Joe] Biden’s term,” Grenell wrote. “Both Republicans and Democrats have criticised Kurti consistently for taking unilateral actions that destabilise the region. So has the EU and Nato. The international community is united against Kurti.”

“The rhetoric used by Kurti now, claiming he is close to the US and better than all previous Kosovo governments, is absolutely false. Don’t be fooled,” Grenell wrote.

The post was then reposted by Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr to his 14.2mn followers. 

Balkan business

Grenell also claimed that US firms are reluctant to invest in Kosovo due to Kurti’s leadership, in contrast to neighbouring Albania and Serbia. 

Trump’s associates pursued major projects in both Albania and Serbia ahead of the US’ 2024 presidential election. Affinity Partners, the investment firm linked to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, has announced plans for luxury developments in Belgrade and Albania. Kushner personally presented his Serbian project to Vucic, while Grenell reportedly facilitated discussions with Belgrade.

However, these projects are not without controversy. In 2024, US Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden raised concerns that such ventures could give the Serbian and Albanian governments undue leverage over the Trump family. 

Moreover, Affinity Partners’ plans to develop the site of the former Yugoslav General Staff building, bombed by Nato in 1999, have met with criticism both from Serbs who object to the planned use of the site, and from Wyden who pointed out that the development will include a museum that has been described as a monument to “victims of NATO aggression”. 

Tensions in northern Kosovo

Business aside, relations between Kosovo and the West have deteriorated over the past two years. In 2023, Kurti and Vucic came close to finalising the Ohrid Agreement, a major step towards normalisation. It was Vucic, not Kurti, who ultimately declined to sign.

Since then, tensions have escalated. Under Kurti’s leadership, Kosovo has cracked down on Belgrade-backed institutions operating in its Serb-majority north. Authorities have shut down unlicensed Serbian financial institutions and postal services, sparking condemnation from Belgrade. Kosovo’s deployment of special police to the region has further inflamed tensions, despite a partial drawdown in 2023.

A statement from Crisis Group in 2024 warned that Kosovo’s “heavy handed” campaign to assert its authority over the divided region risks “provoking further violent resistance and setting back prospects for resolution of its dispute with Serbia”. 

Serbia’s outgoing Prime Minister Milos Vucevic has accused Kurti of waging “terror” against Kosovo’s Serbs. 

Diplomatic strains

The US and EU imposed punitive measures on Kosovo in mid-2023 over its handling of northern tensions, restrictions that remain in place. US Ambassador to Kosovo Jeffrey Hovenier recently acknowledged ongoing strains, urging Pristina to restore “constructive engagement” with Washington and Brussels.

Kosovan officials, however, argue that the EU is unfairly targeting them while indulging Serbia. President Vjosa Osmani has criticised the bloc’s approach, calling it “disappointing, unfair and un-European”.

“The more a country aligns itself with Russia, Iran and China, the more it advances towards the EU,” Osmani said in December 2024, “while Kosovo, which is 100% aligned with the EU, sees no progress.”

Kosovan officials also point to destabilising actions within the country. Chief among these was the Banjska monastery attack in 2023, where an armed Serb gang killed a Kosovan police officer before engaging in a gun battle with security forces. A powerful explosion in Kosovo’s Zubin Potok municipality in November 2024, which damaged a vital water supply canal, was blamed by Kurti on Serbian-backed actors, though Belgrade denies involvement.

The electoral battle

As Kosovo heads to the polls on February 9, Kurti’s opponents have seized on his fraught relations with the country’s Western allies. Rival parties such as the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) have positioned themselves as alternatives to Kurti’s Vetevendosje, promising better relations with Washington.

Former Vetevendosje MP Florin Krasniqi went as far as to accuse Kurti of “treason” for clashing with Grenell. “America spent $56bn to liberate Kosovo and another $18bn after the war,” he said as reported by Koha. “Offending Grenell is a betrayal of the state.”

“Kurti has made his “sovereignist” agenda the centerpiece of his re-election campaign, portraying himself as the defender of Kosovo’s sovereignty while framing Western criticism as appeasement of Serbia. However, this confrontational stance has isolated him internationally,” according to a paper published by the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) ahead of the vote. 

“In contrast, his two main electoral rivals PDK and LDK – which governed Kosovo for most of its post-independence period – represent a more traditional and pragmatic pro-Western approach.” 

Ambitious campaign pledges have been announced by all leading candidates in the run-up to the vote. Hamza has promised a high-speed electric railway between Pristina and Mitrovica, along with €150mn annually for essential medicines. Haradinaj has vowed to cut electricity prices, while Kurti has pledged €1bn per year for drone production – an extension of his push to establish a domestic defence industry amid rising military investment in the Balkans.

However, Vetevendosje’s anti-corruption stance remains its electoral bedrock. Addressing a rally in Ferizaj on 2 February, Kurti took aim at his rivals. “We are a government for the people. They were a government for themselves, their mothers, their wives, their children – not for you,” he said, as quoted by local media. 

Under Vetevendosje, Kosovo has improved its standing in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, climbing from a score of 36 in 2020 to 41 in the latest rankings. While criticism persists over unfulfilled promises, this record continues to resonate with voters.

Meanwhile, rival parties have sought to leave past allegations of corruption behind. As the ECFR paper points out, the LDK and PDK “have nominated competent technocrats with clean records as their prime ministerial candidates”.

The Trump factor

Even if Kurti secures another term, the geopolitical outlook for Kosovo is increasingly precarious. There was already speculation that the new Trump administration will in any case most likely be more sympathetic towards Belgrade than Pristina. On top of that, the Trump administration has already signalled an aggressive foreign policy stance, with the new US president shocking the world with stated ambitions to annex Greenland and Panama, and take over war-torn Gaza. Such disregard for international borders is only likely to encourage Balkan nationalists.