As the low base effects fade, the growth in industrial production (IP) is showing signs of moderating y/y. IP growth in July slowed to 6.8% y/y vs. Bloomberg consensus expectations of 8% and estimates of 8.2% y/y.
Annual consumer price growth accelerated in July, but prices were down compared to June.
Ukrainian retail sales increased 13.0% year on year in 7M21, slowing from 13.8% y/y growth in 1H21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on August 20.
Russia has received $18bn worth of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) in the latest $650bn (456bn SDRs) transfer of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that will take its total reserves to a new all time high of $619bn.
Jobless figures fall for fourth consecutive month.
NBS lifts 2021 growth forecast to 6.5% after strong performance in first half of year.
Russia’s stock market is flying and approached a 10-year high on August 17 as the index reached 1,690 – its highest level since 2012.
The growth rate was slower compared to consensus expectations for growth rates of around 2% q/q and above 14% y/y.
Exports increased by 31% y/y to $647mn while imports soared by 67% y/y to $1.72bn.
Ukraine’s economy fell back into recession as the fallout from the pandemic and soaring inflation that caused the National Bank of Ukraine to dramatically hike interest rates start to weigh on growth.
Russia’s GDP was up 1.3% vs. 4Q19, although it is still 3 percentage points below pre-COVID-19 trend levels.
Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a deficit of $230mn in June from a surplus of $257mn in May, according to Ukrstat.
The CNP’s forecast is rather cautious compared to the double-digit growth rate mentioned by Prime Minister Florin Citu recently as possible for this year.
A move to quash accelerating inflation from the NBP is, however, unlikely before it is clear how big the impact of the expected fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will be.
Growth expected to slow if government reimposes COVID-19 restrictions in the autumn.
Prior to rates meeting president Erdogan was pushing for summer easing.
Kazakh retail sales jumped by 7.2% y/y in January-July, reaching a value of Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) 6,482.8bn ($15.28bn), according to latest data published by Kazakhstan's State Statistics Committee.
Czech consumer prices increased by 3.4% year-on-year in July, the highest figure since July last year, driven by higher prices in transport (by 18.5%) up by 0.6 percentage points (pp) month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation in Romania reached 4.95% in July, rising sharply from 3.8%-3.9% in May-June.
The Watcom Shopping index overtook the 2020 level of activity in week 30 of this year as the retail business recovers on the back of the post-crisis economic growth and rising incomes.