Eastern Europe / Data
Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in the second quarter of 2022
Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in the second quarter, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally adjusted q/q terms. Growth will slow in 3Q22 too, but by less, says Capital Economics.
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Russia’s international reserves up $3.6bn in one week to $571bn
Russia’s gross international reserves were up by $3.6bn in a week to $571.2bn, at the same time as individuals are buying record amounts of foreign currency.
How do high gas prices push up the cost of power?
Russian supply woes have driven European gas prices to previously unimaginable levels, but why are electricity prices so high?
Russian inflation falls to 15.1% in July
Russia is now the only country in Europe where inflation is falling thanks to the determined action by the central bank that has been tightening monetary policy since March last year.
Russia’s current account surplus hits new all-time high of $166bn
In January-July Russia’s current account surplus rose to triple the level of the same period a year earlier, which was already a record.
Poll shows every other Russian supports continuing the war against Ukraine
52% of Russians support continuing the war against Ukraine, whereas 38% of respondents to a new poll by the Russian Field sociological agency were in favour of moving to peace talks with Ukraine.
Russia’s services PMI expands at the fastest pace in a year as confidence and growth return
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index grew at its fastest pace in more than a year to post 54.7 in July, up from 51.7 in June.
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Ukraine becomes the poorest country in Europe again
Wages in Ukraine have been rising faster than those in Russia in recent years, but the devaluation of the hryvnia means that they have tumbled by more than a quarter in the last month and made Ukraine the poorest country in Europe again.
EU gas imports from Russia in charts
The Bruegel think-tank has published a set of interactive charts that show very clearly how Russian gas imports to Europe this year are well below the historical average.
Russia’s CBR predicts 7% contraction of the economy in 3Q22
Russia’s Central Bank for the first time gave a forecast of a fall in Russian GDP in the third quarter – according to the regulator, the economy may fall by 7%, and inflation will continue to slow down.
Russia’s manufacturing PMI still in the black, but down slightly from June
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ PMI Index was still in the black with 50.3 in July, but down slightly from 50.9 in June.
Real disposable income of Russians resilient in 2Q22 on state support
Real disposable income of Russians in 2Q22 remained resilient and declined by 0.8% year on year, as against a 1.2% decline seen in 1Q22, and despite a greater fall in real wages of 6.1% in May, according to the latest data from RosStat statistics age
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Russia’s GDP down 4.9% y/y in June, sanction-coping uneven
Russia’s GDP contracted by 4.9% year on year in June 2022, according to the data from the Ministry of Economic Development.
Russia’s industrial production contracts in June, but by less than expected
Russia’s industrial output fell 1.8% in June y/y, following a 1.7% decline in the previous month but less than market forecasts of a 5.3% contraction, RosStat reported on July 27.
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IMF admits Russia’s coping with sanctions
Russia’s economy is doing better than expected, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report on July 26, upgrading its outlook for the contraction expected this year to -6% from -8%.
Russian tourists in Bulgaria quadruple y/y through May despite war
Russians are not allowed to travel directly to Bulgaria due to the EU-wide sanctions, but many arrive via Serbia, Turkey or Armenia.
CBR cuts rates again to 8%, below pre-war levels
The Central Bank of Russia continued its aggressive rate cutting cycle on July 22, slashing rates by another 150bp to 8%, well below pre-war levels.
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Russian international reserves fall $57bn since the start of the Ukraine war to $573bn
Russia’s international currency reserves have fallen by $56.7bn to reach $572.7bn (including the CBR’s frozen reserves in Europe) as of July 8, the Central Bank of Russia reported on July 15.
Ukraine’s inflation continues to soar, hits 21.5% in June
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) put through an emergency rate hike in June to subdue soaring inflation, but to little effect. The rate of price growth continued to hit 21.5% in June (chart), the central bank reported on June 14.
Ukraine wheat and grain production forecasts tumble, but some exports start
The outlook for the production and export of Ukraine’s grain production this year has tumbled due to the war raging in the country, stoking fears of a global food crisis.
