Eastern Europe / Data
Little change to Watcom shopping index in September as things get back to normal
There was little change to the Watcom Shopping index that measures foot traffic in Moscow’s biggest malls in real time.
Ukraine GDP picks up 5.7% in 2Q21, based on revised data
Ukraine’s real GDP increased 5.7% y/y in 2Q21, the State Statistics Service reported on September 20, improving its preliminary estimate of 5.4% y/y.
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Ukraine retail trade slows to 9.6% growth in August
Ukrainian retail sales increased 9.6% y/y (and 1.1 m/m) in August, slowing from 10.1% y/y growth in the prior month, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on September 20. In 8M21, retail increased 12.9% y/y (vs. 5.7% y/y in 8M20).
FPRI BMB Ukraine: Trust in Zelenskiy recovers to 50%
Heading into the new political season, Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his Servant of the People party are leading the polls in Ukraine, according to the latest socio-political survey conducted by the Rating Group.
Russia's inflation at 6.7% in August, to remain above target until 3Q22
Russia's consumer price index posted 0.2% month on month and 6.7% year on year in August 2021. Inflation continued to accelerate, and was slightly above the Bloomberg consensus expectations of 0.1% m/m and 6.7% y/y.
Ukraine’s NBU hikes rates 50bp to 8.5% as expected
The National Bank of Ukraine hiked interest rates by 50bp to 8.5% on September 9 as expected as it continues to battle soaring inflation.
Russian inflation expectations remained a very high 12.5% in August
Russian inflation expectations remained very high in August, according to the latest the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) report commissioned by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and released in August.
Russia’s Watcom shopping index returns to normal, but inflation concerns remain elevated
The Watcom Shopping index that measures foot traffic in Moscow’s leading malls in real time has returned to normal as Russia’s economy finds a new equilibrium following last year’s crisis. However, soaring prices remain a big concern.
Ukraine's international reserves exceed $30bn, adequate under IMF criterion
Ukraine's international reserves exceed $30bn, adequate under IMF criterion.
Russia’s services PMI goes back into the red with 49.3 in a mild bounce-back overshoot correction
Russia’s economy boomed as the coronacrisis started come to an end in the last quarter of 2020 – a process that is not over. What is happening now is a mild correction from a bounce-back overshoot as a new economic balance is established.
Russia banks its SDR allocation, reserves jump to new all-time high of $615bn
Russia has banked its allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) issued by the International Monetary Fund, lifting its international reserves by $20bn to a new all-time high of $615.6bn as of August 27, the Central Bank of Russia reports.
Ukraine’s current account deficit swells to $293mn in July from -$31mn in June
Ukraine’s current account deficit amounted to $293mn in July, enlarging from a $31mn deficit (revised from a previously reported surplus of $295mn) in the previous month mostly due to a deteriorated trade balance.
Russia’s manufacturing PMI contracts to 46.5 in August as bounce-back effects fade, but businesses retain optimistic outlook
Russia’s seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI index posted 46.5 in August, down from 47.5 in July, the third successive monthly deterioration in operating conditions across the Russian manufacturing sector.
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Ukrainian real wages rise 10% y/y in July
Real wages in Ukraine rose 10.2% year on year in July, slowing from 12.9% growth y/y in June, according to the State Statistics Service on August 27. The average monthly nominal wage amounted to UAH14,345 ($527).
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The approval rating for Russian President Vladimir Putin slid from 66% in June to 61% in August
The approval rating for Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a hit in the last two months, falling from 66% in June to 61% as of August and with 37% disapproving, according to the Levada Center, his worst result since last May.
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July profits of $360mn for Ukraine’s banks biggest single monthly gain in the last five years
The profit of Ukraine’s banks surged to UAH9.7bn ($361mn) in July as the sector’s recovery starts to pull ahead of even their performance in 2019, the last year of strong growth.
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Russian banks are having their most profitable year since 2015
The profits earned by Russian banks in July continued to rise and are now at their highest level since at least 2015, according to the latest Central Bank of Russia (CBR) bulletin.
Russia’s industrial production slows to 6.8% as low base effects wear off
As the low base effects fade, the growth in industrial production (IP) is showing signs of moderating y/y. IP growth in July slowed to 6.8% y/y vs. Bloomberg consensus expectations of 8% and estimates of 8.2% y/y.
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Ukraine retail trade increases 10.1% in July 2021
Ukrainian retail sales increased 13.0% year on year in 7M21, slowing from 13.8% y/y growth in 1H21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on August 20.
Russia gets $18bn in IMF's record giveaway
Russia has received $18bn worth of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) in the latest $650bn (456bn SDRs) transfer of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that will take its total reserves to a new all time high of $619bn.
