Belarus is having a few bad years. GDP grew only by 1.2% in 2019 and will contract by about 5% this year, but its finances are increasingly well run
“It’s a tinderbox” says analyst who determined projections of civil unrest and ability of countries to bounce back from pandemic.
Pre-election clampdown on the opposition has worsened Minsk’s relations with the West, making President Lukashenko more amenable in future talks with Moscow — including on the unification of Russia and Belarus.
Timing is everything as politicians seek to take advantage of poll boosts from steering their countries through the pandemic and launching stimulus packages, before populations really feel the impact of the crippling economic recessions.